Almonty Industries: A Perfect Storm Propels Shares to Record Territory

Almonty's stock surges as China's export curbs and US legislation tighten tungsten supply, while its Sangdong mine ramps up to meet Western demand.

Shares of Almonty Industries are surging to multi-year highs, powered by a powerful convergence of operational execution and favorable macro forces. The company is navigating a critical ramp-up at its flagship asset while the global tungsten market faces a severe supply squeeze, drawing renewed attention from both analysts and institutional investors.

A Tightening Market Fuels the Rally

The fundamental backdrop for tungsten has shifted dramatically. China, which reportedly controls an estimated 75–80% of global supply, significantly tightened export restrictions in late 2025. Analysis from BMO Capital Markets indicated that certain Chinese tungsten exports temporarily ground to a complete halt during that period. Consequently, the tungsten price soared by more than 160% in 2025 and has continued its ascent into the early weeks of 2026.

Adding further pressure is impending U.S. legislation. A proposed ban by the U.S. Department of Defense on tungsten sourced from China, Russia, or North Korea is slated to take effect on January 1, 2027. This regulatory move is accelerating efforts by Western consumers to diversify their supply chains away from these regions.

Almonty’s CEO, Lewis Black, recently characterized the situation as a "real, legitimate supply shortage." He noted that pricing dynamics are behaving independently from historical control mechanisms for the first time in decades, with customers currently accepting the higher costs.

Operational Catalyst: The Sangdong Mine Ramps Up

At the heart of Almonty’s story is the systematic production ramp-up at its Sangdong tungsten mine, which commenced active mining in December 2025. The operation, considered one of the world's largest tungsten deposits, has already delivered its first ore and is methodically increasing output. The company's strategic vision is to establish an integrated, Western-oriented tungsten platform capable of supplying at least 40% of the non-Chinese global market.

This operational progress is translating directly into share price momentum. The equity recently marked a new 52-week high of US$17.31, closing the week at US$18.39—a gain of approximately 24.8% over the prior week. On a monthly basis, the advance totals about 44%, expanding to roughly 150% over three months. The company's market capitalization now stands at just over US$4.1 billion.

Analyst Upgrades and Institutional Interest Surge

The shifting landscape has prompted a wave of analyst reassessments. Couloir Capital delivered a particularly notable revision, raising its long-term APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) price assumption to US$800 per MTU from US$450. This adjustment, citing current prices above US$1,000 per MTU and the Sangdong ramp-up, led the firm to increase its fair value estimate to C$19.30, up sharply from C$7.69.

Other firms followed suit in February: DA Davidson lifted its price target from US$12 to US$18, while B. Riley Financial increased its target to US$17. The consensus rating on the stock is noted as "Moderate Buy."

Institutional ownership patterns reflect this growing conviction. The number of funds holding positions jumped by over 55% last quarter to 107. Van Eck Associates dramatically expanded its stake by 13,294.7% to 11.24 million shares (valued at approximately US$99 million). Other significant investments included roughly US$25.6 million from Encompass Capital Advisors and about US$16.3 million from Next Century Growth Investors.

Beyond Sangdong: A Broader Project Pipeline

Analysts point to additional growth drivers in the pipeline. Couloir Capital highlighted a planned capacity expansion at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, resource definition work on the Sangdong molybdenum project, and progress at the Gentung Browns Lake project in the USA, which could be ready in the second half of 2026.

For Sangdong itself, a Phase II expansion planned for 2027 aims to boost annual capacity to up to 1.2 million tonnes. The company has secured substantial funding for its plans through two U.S. capital raises: approximately US$90 million (gross) in July 2025 and a further US$129.4 million in December 2025, for a combined total of about US$219.4 million.

Valuation: High Growth Priced In, With Room to Run?

A discounted cash flow model from Simply Wall St. calculates a fair value of C$27.81 per share, compared to a recent closing price of C$22.87—suggesting a discount to that estimate. The model assumes annual revenue growth of 42.2% and annual earnings growth of 49.75%, with a transition from losses to profitability expected within three years.

However, the valuation appears ambitious by some metrics. The price-to-book ratio sits at 37.2, significantly above the Canadian industry average of 3.8, though below a peer average of 41.4. This elevates the risk of a sharp valuation correction if growth expectations falter.

The next major test arrives shortly. Almonty is scheduled to release quarterly results on March 19, providing the market with its first concrete look at how elevated tungsten prices and the ongoing production ramp-up are translating into financial performance.