Airbus Stock: A Historic Delivery Slump Tests Investor Patience

Airbus deliveries plummet to 114 jets in Q1, its weakest quarter since 2009, as engine and parts shortages cripple output despite record order backlog.

For the first time in seven years, Boeing has overtaken its European rival in quarterly aircraft deliveries. Airbus handed over just 114 jets in the first three months of the year, its weakest quarterly performance since 2009 and a stark contrast to Boeing's 143 deliveries. This historic low occurs against a paradoxical backdrop of booming demand, with the company's order book swelling to a record level.

The core of the problem is a persistent supply chain bottleneck. Engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney is failing to deliver sufficient powerplants for the A320neo family, a situation CEO Guillaume Faury has directly criticized. This shortage caused deliveries for that crucial model line to plummet from 106 to 81 units year-on-year, a drop of nearly 24 percent. Even the parallel use of LEAP engines from CFM International cannot close the gap. Compounding the issue are quality problems with structural components, leaving completed aircraft parked at production sites awaiting final corrections before they can be sent to customers.

This operational gridlock is set to define the company's first-quarter earnings report on Tuesday, April 28. Analysts at Morgan Stanley anticipate revenue of €12.4 billion, an eight percent decline from the prior year. Adjusted EBIT is forecast to be just €311 million, yielding a slim margin of 2.5 percent. While the Defence & Space and Helicopters divisions are expected to post growth of eight and four percent respectively, their stable margins offer only a partial cushion for the severe weakness in the core commercial aircraft business.

The immediate financial calendar adds another layer for shareholders. The stock will trade ex-dividend on April 21, with the €3.20 per share payout following on April 23. All eyes, however, will be on the management's commentary five days later. The central question is whether Airbus can still achieve its full-year targets of approximately 870 deliveries, €7.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, and €4.5 billion in free cash flow. To hit the delivery goal, the company would need to average 252 aircraft per quarter for the remaining nine months—a significant acceleration from the current pace.

Market sentiment remains cautious. The share price, currently around €42.60, sits roughly ten percent below its 200-day moving average and is down over 13 percent since the start of the year. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 10.9 signals the stock is deeply oversold. Analyst recommendations reflect this wait-and-see stance. Jefferies' Chloe Lemarie and Exane BNP Paribas, which initiated coverage in April, both maintain Hold ratings with a €190 price target. Morgan Stanley also advises Hold but sets a more optimistic target of €230, citing confidence in a recovery once supply chains normalize.

The company's long-term foundation, however, appears robust. The order backlog reached a record 9,037 aircraft by the end of March, representing roughly a decade of production at the current target rate. In March alone, 331 net new orders were added. The narrow-body segment forms the backbone of this backlog, with 7,870 aircraft, nearly three-quarters of which are for the A321neo model. This immense buffer provides structural support, but investors are now demanding a credible path out of the current delivery paralysis.