Adidas Shares Under Pressure as Guidance Disappoints

Adidas shares hit multi-year lows as 2026 profit guidance falls 15% below estimates due to US tariffs and currency headwinds, overshadowing strong 2025 results.

Despite posting record revenue and a significant jump in profit for 2025, Adidas finds its stock trading near multi-year lows. The dissonance stems from a forward-looking forecast that has significantly unsettled the market.

The company's annual guidance for 2026, released in March, fell roughly 15% short of the consensus estimate among analysts. Management projected an operating profit of €2.3 billion, well below the anticipated €2.72 billion. This shortfall is primarily attributed to US import tariffs and negative currency effects, which together are expected to impact earnings by approximately €400 million. Consequently, the projected operating margin of 8.5% to 8.8% is notably below Adidas's own target of 10%. According to Berenberg analyst Nick Anderson, reaching that 10% goal is unlikely before 2028. In response, Berenberg reduced its price target on the stock from €220 to €190, while maintaining a Hold rating.

Strong 2025 Results Overshadowed

The fundamental performance for the past year was robust. Revenue climbed to a record €24.8 billion, while operating profit surged by 54%. The board also announced a 40% dividend increase to €2.80 per share. Furthermore, CEO Bjørn Gulden received a contract extension through 2030.

However, these solid figures have been eclipsed by concerns about the future. The stock has lost nearly 23% since the start of the year and recently hit a new 52-week low of €130.50.

Bond Issue Adds to Investor Concerns

Adding to the negative sentiment, Adidas recently announced a new bond issuance. Investors have interpreted this move as a signal of increased financing needs, which is seen as poorly timed given the stock's already weak performance.

Divergent Analyst Views on the Path Forward

Not all market experts share the prevailing pessimism. Morgan Stanley continues to recommend an "Overweight" position on Adidas shares, lowering its price target only modestly to €208. From current levels, this implies a potential upside of over 40%. The bank cites strong brand momentum and progress in the running segment. UBS also reaffirmed a Buy recommendation with a €219 price target.

Structurally, the tariff issue remains the central risk. With a large portion of its production located in Asia, Adidas is directly exposed to US import duties. Although the company is pursuing procedures for potential tariff refunds, it faces resistance from the US government. Looking to the medium term, management has outlined a roadmap for currency-adjusted sales growth in the high single-digit percentage range from 2027 onward.

The market's next key checkpoint will be Adidas's first-quarter results, scheduled for release on April 29. This report will provide the first concrete evidence of whether the projected tariff and currency headwinds are materializing as forecast—or if the cautious annual guidance leaves room for a positive surprise.