A Valuation Chasm: Public Storage’s Stock Price and Analyst Estimates Diverge

Public Storage US74460W5528

As Public Storage approaches its ex-dividend date this Monday, a stark valuation gap has emerged between its current trading price and several fundamental assessments. The discrepancy raises questions about whether operational headwinds are the primary driver. Here is a breakdown of the key data and its potential implications.

The company's shares closed Friday's session at $273.68, marking an intraday gain of 2.3%. The upcoming corporate action is a focal point: the ex-dividend date is set for Monday, December 15, 2025, for a $3.00 per share distribution, with payment scheduled for December 30. This translates to an annualized dividend of $12.00, yielding approximately 4.4% at the present share price.

Recent operational updates provide context for the market's current pricing. In a business update dated December 8, Public Storage reported that the average rate on new move-ins for the eleven months through November 30 declined by 6.2% year-over-year. Occupancy, however, remained stable at 91.2%. This suggests competitive pricing pressure in the sector, even as physical occupancy holds firm.

Institutional investors have sent mixed signals. Maverick Capital established a new position valued at roughly $2.95 million. Conversely, Sei Investments reduced its stake by 12.5%. Analyst perspectives also vary widely. Mizuho Securities maintains a "Neutral" rating with a $285 price target. In stark contrast, Morningstar's fair value estimate, issued on November 14, 2025, stands at $784 per share.

Analyzing the Substantial Gap

The most striking element is the profound disconnect between the market price, hovering in the $273-$285 range, and Morningstar's $784 valuation—a difference of about 186%. This chasm appears to reflect a market intensely focused on near-term rental rate deflation, while certain fundamental models may place greater emphasis on the company's substantial real estate portfolio and balance sheet strength.

The path to closing this gap will likely depend on two key developments. First, the trajectory of new tenant pricing must be monitored to see if the current deflation stabilizes or persists. Second, upcoming quarterly earnings, specifically those for Q4 2025 due in late February 2026, will be scrutinized for signs that stable occupancy can translate into sustainable pricing recovery.

Forward-Looking Catalysts

In the immediate term, the ex-dividend effect on Monday is a technical price catalyst, as the market adjusts the opening price to account for the forthcoming distribution. For a more sustained re-rating, investors will await the Q4 and full-year 2025 results expected in late February 2026.

Key Dates:
* Ex-Dividend Date: Monday, December 15, 2025
* Q4 & FY 2025 Earnings Report: Expected late February 2026