A Critical Metal's Moment: Almonty Industries Stands at a Supply Crossroads

Amid China-led supply squeeze, Almonty's Sangdong mine secures US tariff exemption, drawing major Wall Street investment as tungsten prices surge over 500%.

A perfect storm is brewing in the global tungsten market, and Canadian miner Almonty Industries finds itself in an enviable position. As trade tensions and export restrictions squeeze supply chains, the company has secured a rare U.S. tariff exemption for its products, drawing intense institutional interest while navigating the costly transition from developer to producer.

The strategic importance of tungsten, a metal critical for defense, manufacturing, and semiconductor production, has been thrown into sharp relief. China, which dominates over 80% of global supply, has imposed its own export restrictions. This follows U.S. tariffs on Chinese tungsten, with a complete ban on its use in American defense goods set for 2027. The urgency is compounded by the fact that China, Russia, and North Korea collectively control approximately 95% of the world's tungsten supply. Japanese suppliers are already warning of potential shortages for major buyers like Samsung.

In this high-stakes environment, Almonty's operational progress is key. The company has completed the Phase 1 commissioning of its Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province, marking the site's first production in over three decades. The facility is designed to process about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A planned Phase 2 expansion in 2027 aims to double this capacity. At full output from both phases, Sangdong could eventually supply around 40% of the world's tungsten demand outside of China.

This supply crunch has ignited a historic price rally. The spot price for tungsten APT surged 534% year-over-year to $2,250 per metric tonne unit by mid-March 2026. Analysts have been forced to radically revise their models. Diamond Equity Research nearly doubled its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast from $0.23 to $0.45, anticipating Q2 2026 earnings of $0.12 per share.

Wall Street has taken note, with a flurry of bullish analyst actions and institutional inflows. The number of funds holding Almonty stock jumped by more than 55% last quarter to 107. Van Eck Associates increased its position by over 13,000% to roughly 11.2 million shares, while other firms like Encompass Capital Advisors and Next Century Growth Investors made significant eight-figure investments. Reflecting the improved outlook, B. Riley Financial raised its price target from $17.00 to $23.00, and Oppenheimer lifted its target from $16.00 to $19.00. DA Davidson maintained its target of $25.00.

Financially, Almonty's 2025 results illustrate a company in a capital-intensive growth phase. Revenue climbed 13% to 32.5 million Canadian dollars (CAD). However, the company posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of 17 million CAD, driven primarily by a 231% spike in administrative costs. The reported net loss was largely a non-cash accounting item related to the revaluation of liabilities triggered by the company's own soaring share price.

Following a December capital raise, Almonty holds a robust cash position of 268.4 million CAD to fund its ambitious plans. Beyond Sangdong, capital is flowing into the Valtreix project in Montana, targeting a production start in the second half of 2026. This project, part of the Gentung-Browns-Lake property in Beaverhead County, hosts mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes at 0.315% tungsten trioxide and is aimed squarely at the North American market. With its strategic trade position and expanding production footprint, Almonty is positioning itself as a cornerstone of Western supply for a metal whose time has decidedly come.