XRP Slips 3.3% as AI Jitters Weigh on Crypto, While Chartists Flag $1 Risk

XRP traded 3.3% lower on Monday, caught in a market-wide pullback rather than any token-specific development. Bloomberg linked the softer tone to fading risk appetite as AI-related equities weakened and concerns over AI spending mounted. Bitcoin, Ether and Solana fell alongside XRP, a pattern that points to a common macro driver rather than a single catalyst.

The distinction matters for holders. Monday's decline cannot be read as a reaction to any one XRP headline, and the same dynamic was visible on 15 October, when US inflation and rate worries knocked the crypto market lower with XRP among the casualties. Macro anxiety, in other words, keeps spilling over into digital assets.

Fund flows and exchange transfers draw attention

Separate data points have added to the cautious mood. US spot XRP ETFs saw their run of weekly inflows come to an end, with net outflows of $1.84 million for the week through 16 October, according to media reports. Cumulative net inflows still stand at roughly $1.8 billion, so the latest week interrupts a streak of demand without erasing what came before. Nor does a single weekly figure prove that ETF selling drove Monday's move.

CryptoQuant data shows a parallel trend: 6.05 billion XRP flowed to tracked exchanges over the 30 days through 19 October, the highest reading since March. Such deposits are not the same as sales. The analytics firm notes that trading activity or wallet reshuffling can sit behind the transfers, so the figure warrants attention without establishing that fresh selling pressure is building.

A ledger upgrade stuck at the gate

On the infrastructure side, activation of a technical change to the XRP Ledger has slipped. Validator approval briefly fell below the required threshold, according to media reports, restarting the activation window. The change is now expected on 4 November 2026, provided support holds. It bundles bug fixes for several functions, including the lending-program code.

None of these threads — the ETF outflows, the exchange inflows or the ledger timetable — has been shown to have triggered Monday's price action. The broader market backdrop remains the dominant explanation.

ChartNerd maps a conditional path lower

Technical analysis offers a second, longer-horizon lens. Analyst ChartNerd warns that XRP could slide toward $1 after last week's close below its 20-week moving average. Additional weekly closes beneath that line would raise the downside risk, in his view.

The upside case is equally conditional. XRP would need to reclaim $1.33 and hold it, which could open room toward $1.50, with $1.80 to $2 named as a subsequent target zone. Holding the level matters as much as clearing it, and the analyst frames this explicitly as a scenario rather than a forecast. At $1.34, XRP sits just above his first threshold — but whether it can stay there is unresolved.

Valuation gauge offers a cautious counterweight

Valuation data provides a partial offset. The 365-day MVRV ratio sits near 0.92, meaning buyers over the past year are on average about 8% underwater. Santiment notes that such setups often coincide with ebbing selling pressure. The firm stops well short of calling a floor, and sustained spot demand remains necessary for any durable recovery.

Derivatives positioning argues for extra care. Glassnode data shows more than 40% of major altcoins near their annual leverage highs — a market-wide observation, not one specific to XRP. Liquidations could still amplify price swings.

The takeaway for XRP holders is that cheap valuations make a bottom conceivable without confirming one. Until spot demand returns and the chart stabilizes, ChartNerd's downside scenario stands alongside the recovery case.