XRP Sits at a Crossroads as Cheap Valuations Meet a Broken Chart

XRP changed hands at 1.34 USD on Tuesday, perched just above the first recovery threshold chartist ChartNerd has laid out — yet the token closed last week beneath its 20-week moving average, a technical breakdown that keeps the door open to a slide toward 1 USD.

That split screen captures the puzzle facing traders right now. On-chain valuation metrics suggest sellers may be running out of steam. The chart, the order books and the derivatives tape tell a more guarded story.

A cheaper market, not necessarily a bottom

The MVRV ratio measured over 365 days sits at roughly 0.92, which means buyers who entered over the past year are sitting on an average loss of about 8%. Santiment, which tracks the gauge, notes that this kind of setup has often coincided with fading selling pressure — holders who have already absorbed losses tend to be less eager to capitulate.

The research house is explicit that this does not guarantee a floor. Any durable rebound still requires sustained spot demand to soak up the coins on offer. In other words, the metric points to possible relief rather than confirming a turn.

A second Santiment observation reinforces the cautious read. The losses logged over recent months may themselves be dampening the willingness of existing holders to sell. That is a plausible scenario, not a promise of fresh buying — lower selling pressure does not create demand out of thin air.

The overhang: $15.7 billion parked on exchanges

Standing against any relief rally is a substantial supply cushion. XRP tokens worth 15.7 billion USD are held on exchanges, according to the same analysis. That inventory could cap upside, particularly if a rising price tempts holders to unload.

Exchange balances are not the same as executed sell orders, and the distinction matters. They represent a latent supply risk: gains could meet a wave of profit-taking. Whether that pressure actually materializes depends on how both the stockpile and demand evolve.

Futures traders are leaning the other way

Derivatives positioning offers no counterweight. CryptoQuant reported on Tuesday that sellers dominate XRP futures activity, a cautious stance that sits alongside the more constructive valuation signal without contradicting it. The two datasets illuminate different corners of the market — a softer urge to sell among spot holders can coexist with short-term pressure from futures traders.

Zooming out, Glassnode data shows more than 40% of major altcoins trading near their annual leverage peaks. That is a market-wide reading rather than an XRP-specific one, but it flags the risk that liquidations could amplify any move in either direction.

What ChartNerd needs to see

For a more constructive picture, ChartNerd argues XRP must reclaim 1.33 USD and, crucially, hold that level. Clearing it would open room toward 1.50 USD, with a subsequent target zone of 1.80 to 2 USD. Holding the mark matters as much as crossing it — the analyst frames this as a conditional path, not a forecast, and a brief pop alone would not satisfy the requirement for a durable recovery.

Further weekly closes below the 20-week average would raise the downside risk, keeping the 1 USD scenario in play. The current price of 1.34 USD sits above the first hurdle, but whether XRP can defend it remains unresolved.

Relief signal, not a reversal

Strip away the noise and the picture is one of a possible base forming rather than a confirmed uptrend. The valuation data make a bottom conceivable; they do not certify one. A convincing recovery would require demand to absorb the available supply and futures pressure to ease. Until that confirmation arrives, the softer selling signal is a tentative hint — not evidence that a turn has already happened.