XRP's Recovery Hinges on Two Gauges: Ledger Usage and Fund Flows

Two very different data points are competing for XRP investors' attention this week. One tracks how much value is actually moving across the XRP Ledger. The other measures whether exchange-traded funds are pulling capital in or handing it back. Right now they are telling diverging stories, and the token's near-term direction depends on which one proves more durable.

Payment volume on the XRP Ledger hit 1.16 billion XRP on Monday, according to media reports — a 207.4% jump in a single day and well above the 580.6 million XRP average. The metric captures the amount of XRP transferred in payment transactions. By the following day, with the session still incomplete, that figure had already faded back toward 300 million XRP, underscoring how quickly a single spike can deflate.

A Thesis Built on Infrastructure, Tested by Demand

21Shares weighed in on the token yesterday, calling XRP a widely misunderstood cryptocurrency and laying out an investment case that looks past the recent price weakness. The research house points to regulatory clarity, institutional investment products, and applications for stablecoins and tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger. It cites the conclusion of the SEC case against Ripple in August 2025 as a foundational piece of that argument.

The linchpin, though, is conditional: more activity on the ledger only strengthens the case if it generates fresh demand for XRP itself. That shifts the focus onto the token's economic role inside those applications rather than the sheer count of new projects. On portfolio construction, 21Shares positions XRP as a higher-risk satellite holding behind Bitcoin, noting that historical drawdowns have at times exceeded 90%. At a current price of 1.05 USD, the bar for that thesis remains high.

ETFs Are Leaking

The fund data offers little encouragement. US spot XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of 10.4216 million USD on Monday, the largest single-day withdrawal in eight months, with roughly 9.4 million USD of that coming out of Bitwise's XRP ETF. A preliminary tally from another data provider on Tuesday showed 6.9 million USD in net outflows, though that reading covered only four of five funds, leaving the final daily figure open.

The concentration of Monday's retreat in a single provider is notable, but the broader signal is what matters: redemptions can temporarily overwhelm the case for a widening investor base as long as more capital leaves than arrives. Whether the funds resume steady inflows or keep bleeding is now a key swing factor.

Stolen Coins Find Their Way to Market

Adding supply-side pressure is the aftermath of the Binance security breach. According to the exchange, 233.46 million XRP left five hot wallets for an address controlled by attackers on October 29. Binance said it would absorb the financial consequences itself rather than pass them to users; the incident concerned custody at the exchange.

By Friday, the attackers had converted roughly 124 million USD worth of stolen altcoins into Bitcoin, according to Elliptic, with XRP swapped through THORChain accounting for the largest share of the Bitcoin received, media reports said. That has turned the risk of further selling from a theoretical concern into realized exchange activity — and it stays a drag as long as remaining stolen holdings keep rotating into other cryptocurrencies.

Regulatory Jitters on Top

Monday also brought headwinds from the regulatory front. Reuters reported concerns that a Democrat-controlled US Congress could tighten crypto regulation, and the news agency pointed to nervousness in the wake of the Binance theft.

Stack those factors together — softer fund demand, stolen tokens being liquidated, and a jittery crypto market — and XRP faces a multi-front test. A more convincing recovery would need the exchange pressure to ease and fund demand to stabilize. Until both gauges turn, any rebound looks fragile.