XRP's One-Dollar Standoff: Whales Accumulate While Washington Puts Reform on Ice

XRP stabilizes near $1.04 with whale buying and a bullish TD signal, yet on-chain activity and Senate delays keep upside limited.

The psychological threshold at $1.00 has become the battleground where XRP's bulls and bears are fighting it out — and for now, the token is holding its ground. XRP traded at $1.04 on Sunday, up 2.26% on the day, though it remains just 3.47% above its 52-week low. After shedding roughly two-thirds of its value over the past year, the digital asset is showing tentative signs of stabilization, even as broader sentiment stays fragile.

Whales Move In at the Critical Level

Data from Santiment reveals an intriguing pattern on the XRP Ledger: large investors have accumulated more than 380 million XRP over the past week, bringing their collective holdings to approximately 8.1 billion coins. The buying has been concentrated precisely around the psychologically significant $1.00 mark, which has been tested multiple times in recent sessions.

Technical analysts have also flagged a bullish signal on the monthly chart using the TD Sequential method, a tool that has historically preceded sharp rallies. When similar signals appeared in April 2020, XRP surged 1,074% in the following months; an August 2022 signal preceded a 973% advance. A bearish counterpart signal in April 2025, however, foreshadowed a 57% decline — a reminder that the methodology is far from infallible.

The immediate upside hurdle sits at $1.06, where roughly three billion XRP changed hands recently. Above that, traders are eyeing $1.35 and $1.64 as potential targets. Ripple has also tightened supply: on August 1, the company locked 700 million of its planned one billion XRP release from the escrow program, reducing the amount of new tokens hitting the market. The August release ultimately added just 300 million new tokens to circulation — the smallest net increase in recent memory. Of the maximum 100 billion tokens that could ever exist, roughly 62.5 billion are currently in circulation.

On-Chain Activity Tells a Different Story

The operational picture on the XRP Ledger itself is less encouraging. Payment volume has collapsed roughly 90% from a peak of 614.9 million XRP on August 7. Analysts downplay the significance, noting it followed a brief surge in activity, but the drop underscores how thin demand remains in spot trading. The relative strength index sits near 40, signaling neither overbought nor deeply oversold conditions, though momentum appears weak.

Should the $1.00 support fail, market observers expect a test of the $0.95 to $0.97 region. Betting markets reflect the uncertainty: Polymarket traders now assign a 68% probability that XRP trades at or below $1.00 by the end of August, up from 50% earlier. Only about 13% anticipate a move to $1.20 or higher. The token has defended the dollar level twice this week, though each defense appeared less convincing than the last.

Senate Delay Complicates the Regulatory Picture

The most significant overhang remains legislative. The CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a commodity and provide much-needed regulatory clarity, has been pushed back. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion on Friday, but the procedural vote is now scheduled for September 15. With Republicans holding 53 seats, the bill needs seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold — a tall order given current divisions.

Two sticking points have stalled progress. Banks are lobbying heavily against proposed rewards for stablecoin users, while Democrats are pushing for stricter ethics rules governing lawmakers with crypto-related holdings. The Senate enters its summer recess on August 10 and won't return until September 14, facing a calendar already crowded with budget disputes. Polymarket traders have priced in the pessimism: the probability of the bill passing this year has fallen from over 80% in February to just 14%.

The uncertainty has already exacted a toll on leveraged positions. Approximately $9.6 million in forced liquidations occurred, mostly among long traders. A modest overnight recovery followed, supported by slightly higher volume.

Institutional Interest Persists Despite Headwinds

ETF flows offer a counterpoint to the bearish sentiment. XRP spot ETFs posted their fourth consecutive week of inflows, though the pace has slowed markedly. July saw just $27.29 million in net additions — the second-weakest month since January — and August has brought only about $1 million so far. For context, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $853.54 million in the first week of August alone, led by BlackRock's IBIT.

Since their launch, XRP ETFs have accumulated $1.51 billion in inflows, though the token's price decline means those holdings are now worth barely $1 billion. May was the strongest month at roughly $132 million, when the CLARITY Act was still advancing through committees.

On the institutional front, Ripple has quietly built out its regulatory infrastructure, now holding more than 50 money transmitter licenses, including in New York and Texas. These licenses would position the company to meet the requirements of the proposed PACE Act, which would grant direct access to Federal Reserve payment systems including Fedwire, FedNow and FedACH. The ISO 20022 standard is expected to provide the technical bridge between FedNow and the XRP Ledger. The legislation remains unpassed, however, and would require additional approval from the OCC — a potential catalyst that remains far from guaranteed.

Until the Senate returns on September 14, traders will be watching three factors: Bitcoin's direction, macroeconomic data, and any developments in the CLARITY Act negotiations. The $1.00 level has held so far, but with whales accumulating and Washington gridlocked, the token's near-term path remains a coin flip.