XPeng's Split Personality: Global Alliances Multiply While the Share Price Sinks Toward Its Floor

XPeng's record Q2 deliveries and Porsche emissions alliance contrast with a 58% stock drop, as analysts cut forecasts amid supply chain issues.

The most telling detail about XPeng's current position isn't in any earnings release — it's a regulatory filing in Brussels. Porsche has asked the EU Commission to leave the Volkswagen CO2 pool and instead form an open emissions alliance with the Chinese EV maker for 2026 and 2027. Three years ago, that sentence would have been unthinkable. Today, it's the clearest signal yet that the competitive order in electric mobility has shifted.

Yet the market remains unmoved. XPeng's shares trade around 58 percent below their November peak, hovering barely above the 52-week low. The gap between the company's expanding global footprint and its deteriorating stock chart has rarely felt wider.

A Record Quarter With a Built-In Asterisk

The second-quarter delivery numbers, due to be published on Monday, August 24, tell a story of operational muscle that the share price refuses to acknowledge. XPeng handed over 103,295 vehicles in the quarter — landing squarely within its own guidance range of 100,000 to 106,000 units and representing a 64.8 percent jump from the first quarter. Cumulative deliveries have now crossed the 1.2 million mark.

But the year-on-year comparison tells a less flattering tale: growth of just 0.11 percent. July's figures reinforced the picture of a company in a holding pattern — 38,027 vehicles delivered, up 3.57 percent year on year but down 5.23 percent from June. The market's response was swift and unforgiving: a 9.8 percent drop in the share price.

The culprit, according to the company, was supply chain friction. The Mona L03 — the model that was supposed to reignite growth — struggled to reach full production capacity due to component shortages. That explanation has since been walked back somewhat: MONA development chief Jiang Wen says the bottlenecks are now largely resolved, with double-shift production running and maximum capacity expected in September and October.

The Order Book Says Demand Isn't the Problem

If capacity constraints are the issue, demand is emphatically not. When the Mona L03 officially launched in mid-July, over 20,000 binding orders arrived within seven minutes. After an hour, that figure had swelled to nearly 47,000. Delivery times of 13 to 17 weeks for the fully electric version suggest a waiting list, not a weak market.

The order pipeline offers some support for the thesis that this is a transitional problem rather than a structural one. But the consensus numbers have moved decisively in the other direction. The average fair-value estimate has been trimmed from roughly $17.05 to $16.03, driven by a wave of price-target cuts and downgrades that only a handful of upgrades have tried to counter.

More concerning is the earnings revision: analysts have flipped from expecting a profit of 1.08 yuan per share for fiscal 2026 to forecasting a loss of 2.73 yuan. Revenue estimates have been cut from 97.0 billion to 93.9 billion yuan. The downgrade cycle, which became public about two weeks ago, has shaved 2.9 percent off the stock — a relatively muted reaction given the scale of the revision.

Two Fronts, One Company

While the financial community sharpens its pencils, XPeng is fighting on two distinct battlefields. At home, the G9L — a new large SUV priced from 259,800 yuan — has entered the fiercely contested premium segment, boasting 800-volt architecture and a claimed nine-minute charge for 450 kilometers of range. The company is also teasing a "global five-seater" version, underscoring a product cadence of roughly two new models per year that few rivals can match.

Abroad, the expansion is quieter but no less strategic. The company has now delivered 6,000 vehicles in France — a market that defends its domestic auto industry with unusual vigor. That milestone joins a series of similar achievements from Denmark to Thailand, where five-figure delivery numbers have been reported. XPeng now operates in 65 countries and regions, with a recent market entry in Munich adding to its European footprint.

The French number is small in absolute terms, but it represents something larger: a systematic, country-by-country approach to internationalization that distinguishes XPeng from many of its Chinese peers. The Porsche CO2 pool application is the logical extension of that strategy — turning a competitor relationship into a regulatory partnership.

The Market's Verdict, So Far

The share price, however, tells a story of skepticism. At 10.18 euros, the stock sits just 1.9 percent above its 52-week low and 31 percent below its 200-day moving average — technical evidence of a deeply damaged medium-term trend. The most recent trading session brought a modest 0.8 percent gain, and the weekly picture shows a slight 0.4 percent advance, but the 12 percent decline over the past 30 days captures the prevailing mood.

The market has clearly repriced the growth narrative. Whether Monday's numbers can reverse that repricing depends on whether the operational progress — resolved supply issues, the G9L launch, expanding overseas deliveries — translates into financial results that challenge the increasingly bearish consensus.

For now, XPeng remains a study in contradiction: a company collecting international milestones and strategic partnerships while its stock hovers near the floor. The double battle — for market share at home and credibility abroad — is being fought in real time. The quarterly report will show whether the market's caution is justified, or whether the gap between perception and performance has grown too wide to persist.