Xiaomi's Record October Deliveries Collide With a Citi Profit Warning

Xiaomi's auto unit has just posted its strongest month of 2026, but the timing of the announcement means equity investors never got to trade it in isolation. The October delivery figure — more than 50,000 vehicles — landed after Friday's close, a session in which the stock had already added 2.0%. The shares then jumped 6.2% as the new week's trading got under way.

That split reaction frames the central tension facing shareholders: booming vehicle demand on one side, deteriorating earnings expectations on the other. Citi is sticking with its Buy rating even as it models a markedly weaker quarterly result.

336,490 Vehicles and a Mountain Still to Climb

Cumulative deliveries from January through October 2026 reached roughly 336,490 units, according to Reuters. Against a full-year target of 550,000 vehicles, that leaves a substantial chunk of the plan crammed into November and December.

The autumn momentum is unmistakable. August brought higher volumes, September stepped up again, and October delivered the year's peak. Xiaomi did not break the latest month down by model, so which vehicles powered the surge remains an open question.

Through October, the company had covered about 61% of its annual goal. Media reports calculate that clearing the remaining distance would require average monthly deliveries of roughly 106,755 units in the final two months — more than double December 2025's previous monthly record of 50,212 vehicles. The October release, published only as a lower bound, also cannot yet be confirmed as a new all-time monthly high.

Citi Trims the Bottom Line

For the third quarter, Citi projects revenue of 104 billion yuan, an 8% decline year on year. The bank expects Xiaomi to report on 24 November 2026.

Adjusted net profit is forecast at 4.8 billion yuan — a 58% drop from a year earlier and 19% below consensus.

The bank's internal view is nuanced. Average selling prices and margins in smartphones should come in ahead of expectations, while the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence segment is still seen posting an operating loss.

Citi reaffirmed its Buy call with a target price of HKD 33.2, even as it cut its adjusted earnings-per-share forecasts for the coming years. A positive rating, in other words, does not translate into an upbeat near-term profit outlook.

Note the calendar mismatch: the blockbuster October belongs to the fourth quarter and cannot offset weakness in the quarter just ended. It speaks instead to the operating trajectory that follows.

Capital Moves Alongside the Sales Story

Xiaomi also plans to take a stake in Sunwoda EVB through wholly owned subsidiary Hanxing Venture Capital. The plan, disclosed on Thursday, calls for an investment of RMB 1.7 billion in exchange for a 5.34% holding. The deal still needs approval from Sunwoda's shareholders; Xiaomi is the buyer, Sunwoda EVB the target.

Separately, an HKEX filing showed Xiaomi repurchased 1,951,400 Class B shares on Wednesday for roughly HKD 50 million in total. The company also issued 40,800 new shares under its equity plan.

Two yardsticks will settle the debate from here: whether Xiaomi can sustain its faster delivery cadence, and how forcefully that volume converts into profit. On the first, October has already given a positive answer.