Xiaomi's EV Bet Pays Off: 40,000 Deliveries and a 9.5% Share Price Leap

Xiaomi Auto booked over 70,000 firm SkyNomad orders between 7 September and 7 October as shares closed at EUR 2.95, up 9.5%.

Xiaomi's transformation from smartphone maker to full-fledged automaker reached a new milestone in September, with vehicle deliveries surpassing 40,000 units — a figure confirmed by CEO Lei Jun. The news, combined with a broad rally in Hong Kong tech stocks, sent the company's shares climbing 9.5% on Friday to close at EUR 2.95.

The stock now sits roughly 26% above its 52-week low, a recovery that has renewed debate over whether Xiaomi is genuinely re-rating as a mobility company or simply riding a short-lived wave of sector optimism.

Order Book and Production Ramp

The operational centrepiece is the SkyNomad line, also marketed under the N70 and N90 designations of the Pengcheng series. Between 7 September and 7 October, Xiaomi Auto booked more than 70,000 firm orders for these models. September deliveries for the SkyNomad range alone exceeded 10,000 units, according to Bloomberg.

That order backlog is both an asset and a test. A large book of binding reservations ties up capital and creates delivery pressure. If Xiaomi can scale its production chain without bottlenecks, those bookings convert into dependable cash flows. If the ramp falters, cancellations and margin erosion become the risk.

Analyst Attention and Capital Signals

The market's renewed interest has not gone unnoticed on the analyst side. On 30 September, HSBC initiated coverage with a buy rating and a price target of HKD 33.20, reflecting hopes that the push into mass automotive production can generate sustainable margins.

Xiaomi's management has also signalled confidence through defensive capital measures — transactions that help smooth the path on Asian trading venues and underscore the leadership's belief in the company's own valuation. Rather than channelling all liquidity into factory floors and supply chains, the group has pursued a parallel strategy of shareholder-friendly capital management.

The Bull Case: Scaling Beyond Hardware

Under the optimistic scenario, Xiaomi sustains the momentum of recent delivery figures. Should SkyNomad output quickly exceed the 10,000-unit monthly threshold, it would validate the company's industrial execution capability. A smooth conversion of the 70,000-plus firm orders would broaden the revenue base and unlock economies of scale.

A continued recovery in Hong Kong's technology sector would add further tailwind. If institutional confidence in Chinese tech names solidifies, Xiaomi could be viewed as a credible automaker rather than merely a consumer electronics company — reducing its reliance on low-margin hardware sales and narrowing the valuation discount it trades at relative to pure-play EV manufacturers.

The Bear Case: Price Wars and Execution Risk

Against that potential stand tangible risks. China's electric vehicle market is defined by intense price competition and short model cycles. Holding or growing the 40,000-unit monthly delivery mark demands continuous investment in distribution, charging infrastructure and software development. If rivals respond with aggressive price cuts, SkyNomad margins could come under meaningful pressure.

Scaling industrial manufacturing carries inherent operational hazards as well. Quality defects or supplier delays could slow the delivery pipeline. The Hong Kong market itself remains volatile — a renewed turn to pessimism among the large tech names would likely trigger profit-taking. And if sales expectations fall short, the share price could quickly come back under pressure.

What to Watch Next

The interplay between technical stabilisation and operational confirmation will determine the stock's near-term direction. As long as the shares hold around the 50-day moving average of EUR 2.95, the chance of a stabilisation remains intact. A sustained break below that support, however, would suggest the recent surge has fizzled and the broader downtrend has regained the upper hand.

The next concrete anchor for the market is the coming monthly sales reports from the vehicle division. If future delivery updates confirm the September figures, the bullish thesis finds its footing. If volumes fall back below the 40,000 mark, a reassessment of the growth narrative looms. The weeks ahead will show whether Xiaomi can complete the leap from smartphone specialist to profitable mobility group.