Xiaomi's Balancing Act: Record EV Deliveries Meet a Choppy Tape

Xiaomi delivers 104,559 EVs in H1 2026, launches premium Sky Nomad SUV, but shares fall 5% amid profit-taking and smartphone memory chip headwinds.

Xiaomi's automotive division is firing on all cylinders, yet the company's stock tells a more cautious story. The Chinese tech giant delivered more than 30,000 vehicles in June for the fourth consecutive month, bringing the YU7 model's first-half 2026 total to 104,559 units. Those figures underscore a production chain that is running with increasing reliability — no small feat in a Chinese EV market where many newcomers still struggle to scale.

The operational momentum, however, collided with profit-taking on Friday. Shares closed at EUR 3.23, down 5.00 percent on the day, just as investors digested the company's latest product push. Two days earlier, Xiaomi had unveiled its new "Sky Nomad" SUV line, comprising the N90 and N70 models, with pre-sales opening for the flagship N90 Max at 299,900 yuan. The price point marks a deliberate step up from the company's sedan offerings and signals an ambition to gain traction in the premium segment of China's fiercely competitive EV market.

A Stock Caught Between Momentum and Gravity

The pullback needs context. Over the past 30 days, the shares have still gained 30.69 percent, powered by a steady stream of positive headlines from both the auto business and the semiconductor supply chain. Yet the longer-term picture remains sobering: the stock sits 13.27 percent below its 200-day moving average, and the distance to the 52-week high of EUR 6.51 is more than 50 percent. The recovery of recent weeks has not yet broken the broader downtrend that has been in place since September's record peak.

Technicians are watching a narrow band. The 50-day average at EUR 2.92 offers roughly ten percent of downside cushion, while the 100-day line sits at EUR 3.21. A sustained move above the 200-day average at EUR 3.73 would flip the technical picture from neutral to bullish — but that remains a significant hurdle. The RSI of 57.7 suggests the stock is not yet overbought, though the 30-day realized volatility of 57.44 percent leaves room for sudden swings in either direction.

The Memory-Chip Squeeze Lingers

The bull case rests on delivery consistency and the potential for Sky Nomad pre-orders to exceed expectations. Four straight months above 30,000 units is a durability signal that separates Xiaomi from many EV startups. But the bear case is anchored in the core business: industry data points to a double-digit decline in Xiaomi's worldwide smartphone shipments during the second quarter of 2026, driven by the so-called memory crisis — sharply higher prices for storage chips that forced the company to raise end-user prices, dampening demand in a price-sensitive mass market.

There is a countervailing development on that front. CXMT, a memory-chip maker in which Xiaomi holds a strategic stake, recently made its market debut with a share-price surge of more than 500 percent. The company is now the world's fourth-largest DRAM producer. Xiaomi's management raised its full-year 2026 smartphone sales target from 90 million to 110 million units in late July, citing easing procurement costs for memory chips — a trend that could gain further traction as CXMT's capacity expands.

Buybacks and the August Test

Xiaomi continues to run a share-buyback program, having repurchased 79.8 million of its own shares, though that has done little to cushion the recent slide. The company also crossed below its 100-day moving average on Friday before closing the week at EUR 3.23.

All eyes now turn to August 18, when Xiaomi is scheduled to release its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2026. The board will review consolidated interim results for the first half of the year, and investors will scrutinize how heavily the EV division's ramp-up costs weigh on the balance sheet. Market speculation also points to a possible interim dividend, though nothing has been confirmed.

The key question is whether the operational momentum from record deliveries and the new SUV lineup can translate into the financial statements — and whether the raised smartphone target of 110 million units holds up in a market still grappling with elevated memory-chip prices. Between now and then, the stock is likely to oscillate between the 50-day and 100-day averages, with the 200-day line remaining the decisive battleground for the trend.