Xiaomi's Autumn Offensive: A Foldable Flagship, a Memory-Chip Bet, and the EV Credibility Gap

Xiaomi's stock rebounds 10% post-earnings, but EV delivery shortfalls and margin pressure cloud the outlook despite new chip and foldable launches.

The stock has clawed back roughly ten percent since its mid-August earnings report, yet the recovery masks a deepening schism in Xiaomi's investment case. On one side sits a hardware giant pushing the boundaries of domestic chip integration; on the other, an electric-vehicle division whose delivery promises are starting to look fragile. Investors are now left to weigh which narrative will define the coming quarters.

A Supply-Chain Statement With Geopolitical Edge

Xiaomi confirmed on Friday via Weibo that its upcoming Xiaomi 18 Fold will be the first smartphone to ship with LPDDR6 memory from CXMT, the Chinese memory maker that has raced into mass production of the new standard less than twelve months after LPDDR5 debuted. The chips, available in 16-gigabyte capacities and rated at up to 12,800 megatransfers per second, put CXMT ahead of its South Korean rivals in bringing the next generation to market.

The foldable pairs that memory with Xiaomi's in-house 3-nanometer Xring O3 processor, which drives the LPDDR6 at a bandwidth of 113.8 gigabytes per second. The same silicon will power the Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max tablet, announced alongside the foldable. Xiaomi says it has poured more than 20 billion yuan into chip development, supported by a team of over 3,000 engineers.

There is a political dimension that cannot be ignored. The US Department of Defense designated CXMT as a Chinese military company in January 2025, a classification the memory maker is contesting in court. Apple, meanwhile, is reportedly seeking US approval to source CXMT chips for its iPhones and MacBooks — a telling sign of how central the Chinese supplier has become to the global memory landscape.

The September Product Wave

Beyond the foldable, Xiaomi's autumn lineup is unusually broad. The Pad 9 Pro Max is expected to ship with a 13-inch display, a battery exceeding 10,000 milliampere-hours, and 120-watt fast charging. In India, the Redmi 17 5G launches on September 3, featuring a 7,900 milliampere-hour battery and a Snapdragon 4 Gen 5 chip. A HyperOS test build is also trialing a new privacy feature designed to block side-angle views of apps and notifications — potentially a signature addition to the Xiaomi 18 series.

For shareholders, the product push signals a strategic pivot toward technological self-reliance. By pairing its own processor with early access to domestic memory technology, Xiaomi is reducing its exposure to Western supply chains at a time when geopolitical tensions are reshaping the semiconductor industry.

The EV Story Loses Its Sheen

The hardware news, however, does little to address the weakness that has weighed on the stock. Astrada Advisors downgraded Xiaomi from "Buy" to "Hold" on August 21, citing concerns about the company's electric-vehicle trajectory. Xiaomi had targeted 550,000 vehicle deliveries for 2026, but the first half produced just 185,000 units — a pace that falls well short of what would be needed to hit that goal.

The analyst's price target of $3.35 to $4.07 implies only about ten percent upside, based on a multiple of 14.8 times expected earnings. That is hardly a scathing verdict, but it marks a tonal shift from unbridled growth enthusiasm to a more sober assessment. The new Sky Nomad, an EREV SUV designed to address range anxiety, is meant to close the delivery gap — though whether it can do so within months remains an open question.

The quarterly figures from August 18 provide the context. Revenue fell 6.1 percent to 108.922 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit dropped 42.6 percent to 6.22 billion yuan. Gross margin came in at 19.8 percent, below the 20.4 percent consensus. Smartphone shipments declined 26.5 percent to 31.2 million units, even as average selling prices rose 26 percent — evidence of a premium pivot that is costing market share. The EV segment grew 17.1 percent to 25.3 billion yuan in revenue but still posted an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan. IoT revenue slipped 19.2 percent.

Nomura, which reaffirmed its "Neutral" rating on August 19, noted that revenue slightly beat the consensus estimate of 108.325 billion yuan — a small consolation that does little to change the underlying diagnosis of margin pressure and an unprofitable growth engine.

Reading the Tape

The share price closed Friday at 3.07 euros, up 2.4 percent on the day — a move that looks more technical than fundamental, with the stock hovering near its 50-day average of 2.92 euros. Over 30 days, the stock is still down 15 percent, and it remains 53 percent below its 52-week high of 6.54 euros reached last September.

The gap between the short-term bounce and the longer-term discount suggests the market has not fully priced in the EV division's structural challenges, even as it has stopped rewarding every new model announcement with the enthusiasm it once did. The recent SUVs N90 and N70, for instance, generated little sustained momentum.

Xiaomi now presents as a company moving at two speeds: a mature but contracting smartphone business and an ambitious yet loss-making auto division whose growth narrative is showing cracks. The Astrada downgrade captures that tension more accurately than Friday's modest gain. For investors banking on the EV strategy as the next major catalyst, the delivery numbers over the coming months will be the tell — whether Sky Nomad can rescue the target, or whether the autumn product wave becomes the more reliable driver of the stock's fortunes.