Wells Fargo Keeps Take-Two at Overweight: GTA VI's 50 Million Unit Bet vs. a Softening Core

Wells Fargo holds its Overweight rating and $300 target on Take-Two, cutting near-term bookings and EBITDA estimates while banking on GTA VI sales.

Wells Fargo reaffirmed its bullish stance on Take-Two Interactive, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. The headline numbers look unchanged, but the substance beneath them tells a more nuanced story: the bank is trimming its near-term expectations while continuing to bank on Grand Theft Auto VI to carry the investment case.

That split — cautious on the current portfolio, confident about the next blockbuster — is what investors should focus on. The price target only holds if GTA VI delivers on the outsized sales assumptions baked into it.

The GTA VI Assumption Doing the Heavy Lifting

Wells Fargo models roughly 50 million units sold for GTA VI at a gross average price of $90. For fiscal 2026, the bank's forecast implies 33 million units at an $80 average — meaning its own GTA VI estimates sit above that baseline on both volume and price.

Those figures are projections, not reported results. They explain why the bank is sticking with its target despite weaker expectations elsewhere in the portfolio. The long-term optimism doesn't rest on broad-based strength across Take-Two's existing lineup; it rests on one title performing exceptionally well.

Cuts to Bookings and EBITDA

On the near-term side, Wells Fargo lowered its quarterly bookings estimate by 2% and its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 4%. No change was made to its fiscal 2026 forecast.

The bank now expects NBA 2K unit sales to come in 10% below the prior-year level. Recurring consumer spending is projected to grow just 1%, down from an earlier estimate of 4%.

For one quarterly projection, Wells Fargo pegs bookings at $3.35–3.40 billion, below the consensus of $3.446 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $876–900 million, also under the $926 million consensus. Both key metrics, then, reflect a more conservative view than the analyst average — a confirmed price target shouldn't be mistaken for a confirmation of broader market expectations.

Mobile Metrics Add Pressure

The mobile segment offers little relief. Daily users across the top twenty titles are running 22% below the prior year, according to the analysis. Downloads for all mobile games fell 29% year over year. Color Block Jam took a sharper hit: downloads down 73%, daily active users down 53%.

These usage figures stand in contrast to the GTA VI optimism and serve as a reminder that the existing games business warrants scrutiny independent of the next big release.

Fiscal 2027 Gets a Nudge Higher

Not every revision went downward. Wells Fargo raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 2%, even as it held fiscal 2026 steady. The takeaway for investors: the unchanged price target assumes long-term GTA VI sales can offset present weaknesses. Delays or softer-than-expected unit sales would put that thesis under strain. The bullish call remains tightly tethered to the commercial fate of a single game.