Voestalpine Trims Guidance Ceiling as Danube Shallows and US Tariffs Bite

Voestalpine has lowered the top end of its EBITDA guidance for the 2026/27 financial year, citing a mix of geopolitical and operational headwinds that now includes something as elemental as the water level of the Danube. The upper bound of the forecast was cut from EUR 1.85bn to EUR 1.70bn on Wednesday, while the floor stays put at EUR 1.60bn — narrowing the projected range to EUR 1.60–1.70bn from the previously indicated EUR 1.60–1.85bn.

Management pointed to the war in the Middle East, elevated energy and logistics costs, and additional provisional US tariffs as the forces behind the revision. On the earnings line, Voestalpine now expects EBIT of between EUR 830m and EUR 930m for the same period.

Low Water Leaves Steel Sitting at Linz

Logistics trouble on the Danube has kept the Linz steel plant from shipping all of its output, according to media reports, with CEO Herbert Eibensteiner naming the persistent low water as one reason deliveries have fallen short. The river's shallow conditions have become a recurring constraint on the group's ability to move product out of its Austrian heartland.

Tariffs are doing damage on a second front. Reuters reported Wednesday that the provisional US duties are weighing in particular on the Tubulars division, and that project delays in the energy business are adding to the pressure. Eibensteiner has also flagged the tariff burden directly.

Those same trade barriers were cited by the company as a driver of the job cuts announced Monday at its Kindberg site, where roughly 150 positions are slated to go by the end of March 2027. Voestalpine also referenced difficult conditions in alternative markets in the Middle East. Talks with the works council over a social plan for affected employees have already begun, with an agreement targeted for the end of November.

Two Banks, Two Verdicts

Analysts moved in different directions after the update. JPMorgan trimmed its price target to EUR 52.50 from EUR 56.80 while keeping its "Overweight" rating, according to media reports on Tuesday. UBS, by contrast, left both its buy recommendation and its EUR 64.00 target untouched. The Swiss house reads the guidance cut as pointing to EBITDA roughly 6% lower in 2026/27, even as EU steel prices recover.

Investors should also keep in mind that the half-year EBITDA and EBIT figures included one-off items — both positive and negative — netting to around EUR 100m, per the company.

Voestalpine will publish its third-quarter 2026/27 results on 10 February 2027.