Valneva Keeps Buy Ratings After UK Pulls Chikungunya Shot, as Lyme Vaccine Carries the Story

MHRA withdrew Ixchiq's UK authorisation, but Stifel and Portzamparc kept buy ratings, citing minimal UK sales and the Lyme vaccine pipeline.

British regulators have stripped Valneva of its marketing authorisation for the chikungunya vaccine Ixchiq, yet the setback has done little to shake the convictions of the analysts who cover the biotech. Both Stifel and Portzamparc have reiterated their buy recommendations, arguing that the UK contributes almost nothing to their valuation of the company.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) withdrew the licence following a benefit-risk review by the Commission on Human Medicines. Valneva has said it will not appeal the decision, stressing that the ruling rested on safety data that was already known and that no newly identified safety signal emerged during the review.

A market that barely registers

Stifel puts UK product sales at just 1% of its sum-of-the-parts valuation and has maintained a price target of EUR 7.50. Portzamparc likewise sees substantial upside, keeping its buy rating with a target of EUR 4.80.

The limited financial exposure is not accidental. Valneva had already halted active distribution of the vaccine in Britain months earlier, after demand from travellers proved weak. With no doses left in circulation, the company faces no recall costs, and it expects neither a hit to group revenue nor any material charges.

Approvals elsewhere remain intact. The vaccine's authorisations in the European Union, Canada, Brazil and other distribution markets are unaffected by the UK move. Chikungunya has been recorded in more than 110 countries since 2004, and Valneva is now leaning harder into endemic regions. A pilot programme in Brazil has already given the shot to over 61,000 people without fresh safety concerns, while roughly 187,000 doses have been administered worldwide.

Lyme candidate anchors the investment case

What really underpins the bullish stance is the pipeline, and above all the Lyme disease candidate VLA15. In the Phase III VALOR trial, the vaccine showed 73.2% efficacy against confirmed cases from 28 days after the fourth dose.

The medical need is considerable. According to the company, 476,000 cases are recorded annually in the United States and 132,000 in Europe. Stifel expects the European review to wrap up in the third quarter of 2027, and regulatory decisions on the Lyme programme are anticipated within the next twelve months.

Shareholder structure and a bruising year

On the corporate side, Valneva disclosed its latest voting rights position on Monday. As of the reference date of 30 September 2026, the company reported 189,771,237 ordinary shares. Total voting rights, including dormant shares, came to 204,365,399, while the figure excluding dormant rights was 204,241,077.

The market's reaction to the MHRA news was swift nonetheless. After the decision became public, Valneva's depositary receipts slipped 6.5% in after-hours trading, and the pressure carried over into the following session on European exchanges, where the stock closed down 2.1% at EUR 2.52. Since the start of the year, the shares have shed 32% of their value.

The UK ruling marks a setback for regional commercialisation but leaves the company's core projects untouched. Roughly a month ago, the European Medicines Agency validated the marketing application for Valneva's Lyme vaccine, the sale of its Nantes site was completed in the same period, and first-half results were published shortly before that. With no appeal planned in Britain and its key-market approvals still standing, Valneva is concentrating on the international authorisations it retains.