UBS's Own Stock Shrugs Off Its Analysts' Divergent Calls on SAP and Argenx
Published on 08/26/2026 at 18:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The Swiss banking giant spent Wednesday issuing verdicts that moved other people's share prices, yet its own equity continues to cruise near the top of its 52-week range. A downgrade of SAP and an upgrade of Argenx — both delivered by UBS's research desk — offered a window into how the firm is picking winners and losers in the European large-cap space, even as the bank's own recovery story remains firmly on track.
SAP's AI Rollout Hits a Snag
UBS analyst Michael Briest trimmed SAP to "Neutral" from "Buy," though he lifted the price target to €201 from €164. The catalyst is the sluggish delivery of the software group's Joule AI agents: as of August 25, only 17 of the more than 200 planned agents had gone live, with another 15 in testing.
Briest argues that the integration of agentic AI at SAP has stalled, and he now expects a deceleration in the cloud order backlog during the second half of the year. The bank also flagged operational detail to back its caution: organic cloud growth came in at 24.6 percent in the second quarter, with an exit rate estimated at roughly 23 percent. More tellingly, the cloud gross margin slipped for the first time since 2021, prompting UBS to trim its 2026 Ebit forecast by €100 million. SAP shares responded with a decline of around 3.7 percent.
Argenx Gets the Opposite Treatment
The verdict on Argenx could hardly have been more different. Analyst Xian Deng upgraded the Belgian biotech to "Buy" from "Neutral" and raised the price target to $1,400 from $960, citing sales potential of roughly $20 billion for the drug Vyvgart. The stock jumped more than 3.5 percent on the news.
The contrasting calls underscore how granular UBS's research has become — penalizing SAP for execution delays while betting on untapped blockbuster potential at Argenx.
The Bank's Own Numbers Tell a Cleaner Story
For UBS itself, the picture has barely clouded over. The shares closed the latest session at €46.40, up 0.6 percent on the day, leaving them just 3.7 percent below the 52-week high of €48.19 and roughly 50 percent above the March 23 low. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 17 percent, and over twelve months it is up 34 percent — a reflection of the broad recovery since the Credit Suisse takeover crisis.
The second-quarter results, published in late July, laid the groundwork. Earnings per share rose to CHF 0.72 from CHF 0.62 a year earlier, while revenue held nearly steady at CHF 16.13 billion against CHF 16.18 billion. Assets under management climbed to $7.3 trillion. That combination — higher profit per share on flat revenue — points to improving margins in the core franchise.
Hallam's revised target of CHF 47.00, up from CHF 41.50, with a "Neutral" rating maintained, reflects the same read: better revenue momentum in investment banking and wealth management is now baked into the numbers.
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US Restructuring and the Cost-Cutting Sequel
Beyond the quarterly figures, UBS is pushing ahead with a restructuring of its American operations. The bank plans to shift how it compensates its 5,644 US financial advisers starting in 2027, tying more of their pay to the sale of banking products. Regulatory approval to convert UBS Bank USA into a nationally chartered bank has cleared the way for that move, which aims to weave wealth management more tightly together with traditional banking services and unlock new revenue streams.
Cost discipline remains part of the same story. Internal documents show UBS intends to cut another 10,000 positions by 2027 — roughly nine percent of its global workforce — as it continues dismantling the duplicate structures inherited from Credit Suisse. The savings should support the share price over the medium term, provided the integration stays on schedule.
Bern's Capital Shadow Lingers
The debate over stricter capital requirements, which the Swiss Federal Council fleshed out about two weeks ago, continues to hover in the background. UBS has called the proposed "too-big-to-fail" measures excessively stringent by international standards. Former CEO Oswald Grübel has weighed in publicly, backing the Federal Council's push for a substantial equity buffer to shield the state from risk in a crisis. For now, that overhang is being outweighed by operational progress, but it remains a live issue for investors.
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What's Next
The next milestone is October 28, when UBS reports third-quarter results. That print will show whether the US restructuring and job cuts are already feeding through to the bottom line — and whether the research desk's mixed signals on other stocks are any guide to the bank's own trajectory.
