Tungsten's Tightening Grip: Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Collides With a Seller Cashing Out

Almonty launches $300M buyback as insider trims stake; Sangdong ramp-up drives 498% revenue surge and strong cash position.

The tungsten market is delivering a study in contrasts for Almonty Industries. Just days before the company's board-sanctioned $300 million share repurchase is set to begin, one of its most prominent investors has chosen the opposite side of the trade, trimming a substantial stake after a sustained run-up in the sector.

Deutsche Rohstoff AG disposed of 5 million Almonty shares on Thursday, locking in gains following a rally that has lifted the stock roughly 15 percent between July 23 and August 17. The move reads less as a vote of no confidence and more as tactical profit-taking against a backdrop of surging tungsten prices and a string of positive catalysts for the Korea-focused producer.

A Mine Shifts From Blueprint to Production

The operational story underpinning Almonty's valuation has been building for weeks. Early July marked the official start of processing throughput at the Sangdong mine in South Korea, transitioning the flagship asset from construction into active operation. Management drew down a 2.6-month ore stockpile to gradually ramp throughput toward the Phase I target of 640,000 tonnes of annual capacity — a milestone that materially de-risks the project in the eyes of analysts.

That operational handover is now feeding directly into the financials. Second-quarter 2026 revenue came in at C$43.0 million, a 498 percent year-over-year surge, with mining operating income of C$26.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of C$17.6 million. The company also holds roughly 139,700 tonnes of ore on pad with an average grade of 0.25 percent WO3, representing an estimated tungsten value of about $68 million at current prices — a cushion for the ongoing ramp-up.

Buyback Mechanics and the Balance Sheet Behind Them

The repurchase program, approved by the board on August 17, authorizes the buyback of up to 14.4 million common shares — approximately 5 percent of outstanding stock — at a maximum aggregate value of $300 million. Trading begins August 24, 2026, and extends through August 24, 2029, executed on the Nasdaq and through alternative trading systems.

Management's rationale is straightforward: the current share price does not reflect the intrinsic value of the company's tungsten assets, particularly with Sangdong scaling toward full capacity. The market appeared to agree on August 20, when the stock jumped 6 percent to $17.15 on volume of roughly 6 million shares, above the recent daily average of 5.67 million. That session pushed the company's market capitalization to approximately $4.97 billion.

The buyback's scale is underpinned by a formidable liquidity position. As of June 30, Almonty held C$1.23 billion in cash, bolstered by an oversubscribed $800 million convertible notes offering completed in June, carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031. That war chest allows the company to pursue an aggressive capital return program without jeopardizing operational expansion.

Washington Adds Fuel to an Already Tight Market

External forces are amplifying the bullish case. On August 6, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security issued an order requiring domestic tungsten scrap sellers to prioritize domestic buyers, with additional procurement rules set to restrict Chinese and Russian tungsten in defense applications starting in 2027. Analysts have cited these export constraints as a key driver behind the rising valuation of Almonty's non-Chinese tungsten supply chain.

The supply-demand arithmetic is stark. Industry analyses published August 21 project the global tungsten market expanding from $6.66 billion in 2026 to roughly $9.62 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 9.6 percent. Meanwhile, tungsten prices have climbed an eye-watering 622 percent between January 2025 and April 2026 — a scarcity premium that positions Almonty, one of the few meaningful producers outside China, at the center of institutional attention.

Analyst Validation and the Road Ahead

GBC AG weighed in on August 20 with a "Buy" rating and a price target of $30.00, valid through end-2027. The research house explicitly cited Sangdong's transition from development to active processing as the central risk-reduction step justifying the call.

For Deutsche Rohstoff, the calculus appears equally clear: after riding a sector rally that shows few signs of abating, realizing gains on a 5-million-share position is a rational portfolio decision. Whether other early investors follow suit — or whether the buyback's commencement next week absorbs any residual selling pressure — will determine if the current momentum is durable or merely a pre-program spike.