Tungsten's New Calculus: How Almonty Turned a Korean Mine Into a $300 Million Bet on Itself

Almonty's Sangdong mine ramps up amid US tungsten export ban, Q2 revenue up 498%, cash at C$1.2B, buyback authorized.

The strategic-metal world has a new focal point, and it sits in South Korea's Gangwon province rather than the supply corridors of China. When Washington this Thursday imposed a year-long export ban on tungsten-bearing scrap and the battery-recycling residue known as "black mass," it effectively sharpened the premium on non-Chinese supply — a category where Almonty Industries now occupies a conspicuously prominent slot.

The timing aligns with a transformation that has been building for months. Almonty's Sangdong mine made the leap from development project to active producer in June, with stockpiled ore now flowing through the processing plant as saleable tungsten concentrate. That operational shift has rippled through the company's financials: second-quarter revenue hit C$43.0 million, a 498% jump from the C$7.2 million posted a year earlier, while net income swung to C$181.8 million.

Yet the headline profit figure deserves a closer look. Embedded within it are roughly C$173.1 million in non-cash valuation gains tied to derivatives and warrants — a distinction that separates genuine operating earnings from accounting tailwinds. The mining operation itself generated C$26.1 million in the quarter, a more sober measure of the ramp-up's progress.

A Capital-Markets Cleanup, Executed in Three Acts

While the mine was coming online, management was quietly redrawing the company's public-market footprint. This week marks the final chapter: trading in Almonty's CHESS Depositary Interests on the Australian Securities Exchange was suspended at Thursday's close, with the formal delisting set for September 1. That follows the removal of its shares from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the end of July, leaving Nasdaq (ALM) and Frankfurt (ALI1) as the two remaining venues.

The consolidation arrives alongside a dramatically fortified balance sheet. A heavily oversubscribed convertible bond offering closed in early June, raising gross proceeds of US$800 million at a 2.25% coupon with a 2031 maturity — with first purchasers exercising their option for additional notes in full. By June 30, cash stood at C$1.2 billion, up from C$268.4 million at the end of 2025. August brought shelf registrations for potential equity issuance of roughly US$246.79 million, including a component earmarked for an employee share plan.

That war chest underpins the board's decision, announced last Monday, to authorize a share buyback of up to US$300 million over 36 months, covering as many as 14.4 million common shares. The market's initial response was muted — the stock slipped about 1.2% — but the repurchase signals a degree of confidence that dovetails with the broader repositioning.

Contractual Backbone and a Pricing Tailwind

The revenue surge owes as much to market conditions as to operational progress. The average European APT price — the benchmark for tungsten intermediates — climbed from US$453 per MTU in the second quarter of 2025 to roughly US$3,075 per MTU in the same period this year, a more than sixfold increase that has transformed the economics of every tonne processed.

Almonty has moved to lock in those favorable conditions. The Plansee Group extended its long-term tungsten offtake agreement by six years, stretching total coverage for the majority of Sangdong's Phase-1 production to 21 years. Separately, in mid-July, the contract with Global Tungsten & Powders LLC was expanded — six years added to the term, contracted volumes increased by 40%, and pricing terms improved by around 6.3%.

Institutional money has taken notice. Van Eck Associates Corp. boosted its position to 11,239,482 shares, valued at roughly US$99 million — an increase of more than a hundredfold from the prior reporting period, a move that coincides with both the production start and the tightening export environment.

Two Analyst Camps, One Open Question

The stock trades at €16.05, up 2.5% on the day, and has climbed 343% over the past twelve months. That still leaves it about 22% below the April peak of €20.61 — a gap that optimists see as recoverable ground.

Not everyone is equally convinced the trajectory is smooth. Diamond Equity trimmed its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate on August 14 from US$0.55 to US$0.39, citing a slower-than-expected ramp-up at Sangdong. GBC AG struck a more bullish tone six days later, issuing a buy rating with a US$30 price target and framing the production start as the key milestone in reducing project risk.

The full-capacity picture offers some perspective on what's at stake: Sangdong's processing plant is designed to handle around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, with an approved Phase-II expansion potentially doubling that to 1.2 million tonnes. The shares sit roughly 23% above their 200-day moving average, suggesting the medium-term uptrend remains intact even as the consolidation plays out.

For investors, the configuration is becoming clearer by the week: a Western tungsten producer entering its production ramp just as Washington moves to constrain supply channels, backed by a cash position that allows both aggressive buybacks and continued operational investment. The divergence between analyst forecasts, however, keeps the Sangdong ramp-up firmly in the category of work in progress — promising, but not yet proven at full tilt.