Tungsten Producer Draws Fresh Institutional Support as Sangdong Shifts From Construction to Cash Flow

Tungsten producer Almonty attracts major institutional buying and a $300M buyback, while analysts diverge on near-term earnings amid Sangdong ramp-up.

The transition from mine builder to mine operator is rarely a smooth one, and for Almonty Industries the current chapter captures both sides of that equation. Even as one analyst firm trimmed its near-term earnings expectations, the tungsten producer has attracted a wave of fresh institutional buying, a bullish new price target, and a board-approved buyback that kicks off this week.

Heavyweights Add to Positions

Regulatory filings from mid-August paint a picture of broad-based accumulation among large asset managers. Bank of America Corp DE expanded its Almonty stake by a striking 309.6 percent during the latest reporting period, lifting its holding to 908,911 shares. Van Eck Associates Corp also boosted its position, while Encompass Capital Advisors LLC added 47.9 percent.

The buying spree extends beyond those names. BlackRock increased its stake by roughly six million shares, an estimated investment of around $100.6 million, while T. Rowe Price Associates and its investment-management arm each added more than five million shares, together representing nearly $178 million in combined value.

Some of this activity can be traced to a mechanical trigger: Almonty was added to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices in June, which typically forces index-tracking funds to build positions. That helps explain why the buying has been so broad-based.

Not every institution moved in the same direction. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC, which had previously increased its stake by 110.4 percent, later exited its entire position of nearly 4.8 million shares. Insider activity has also been mixed, with one director purchasing shares in August even as other insiders sold.

Analyst Views Diverge on Near-Term Outlook

The analyst community is split on what comes next. GBC AG issued a Buy rating on Thursday with a price target of $30 by the end of 2027, arguing that the investment case has shifted from construction and financing risk to measurable operational metrics now that the Sangdong mine has begun processing stockpiled ore.

Diamond Equity struck a more cautious tone, cutting its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate on August 19 from $0.55 to $0.39, below the consensus of $0.48. The firm cited weaker near-term earnings prospects, a familiar challenge during the ramp-up phase when commissioning costs and margin volatility tend to bite.

Buyback Program Set to Launch

The mixed analyst sentiment hasn't deterred the board. On August 17, directors approved a buyback program covering up to 14.4 million common shares — roughly five percent of outstanding stock — for up to $300 million. The program runs from August 24, 2026 through August 24, 2029.

The repurchase plan sits on a comfortable financial foundation. Almonty ended the second quarter with C$1.23 billion in cash, bolstered by an oversubscribed $800 million convertible bond issued in June with a 2.25 percent coupon and 2031 maturity. The company has also filed a shelf registration for approximately $246.79 million to support future share issuances, including employee equity programs.

Sangdong Delivers First Operating Metrics

The financial firepower is matched by improving operational data. Almonty reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of C$43.0 million, up 498 percent year over year, with net income of C$181.8 million — though C$173.1 million of that came from non-cash valuation gains on derivative instruments. Adjusted EBITDA stood at C$17.6 million.

The Sangdong mine in South Korea, which received its first ore delivery in December 2025, began processing stockpiled material in July. Phase I is now in commissioning and ramp-up toward a target capacity of 640,000 tonnes annually.

Inventories tell the story of a mine finding its stride. At the end of Q1 2026, Almonty had stockpiled roughly 120,000 tonnes of ore averaging 0.24 percent tungsten trioxide. Q2 added nearly 19,700 tonnes at a richer grade of 0.35 percent, bringing the total to about 139,700 tonnes at a blended grade of around 0.25 percent.

Weiss Ratings responded to the operational progress on August 12 by upgrading the stock from "Sell (D-)" to "Hold (C-)."

A Story of Two Timelines

What emerges is a company navigating two distinct narratives simultaneously. The long-term thesis — Sangdong's ramp-up, a fortified balance sheet, and growing institutional conviction — remains firmly intact. The near-term reality, however, is one of commissioning costs and earnings estimates still finding their floor. For investors, the distinction between those two timelines may prove as important as the tungsten grades coming out of the ground.