Tungsten Export Ban Adds Fresh Momentum to Almonty's Buyback-Fueled Rally

Almonty announces $300M buyback as US restricts tungsten scrap exports, boosting its non-Chinese supply position; Q2 revenue surged 498%.

The intersection of geopolitics and corporate finance is rarely as visible as it has become for Almonty Industries this week. The tungsten producer used a CEO newsletter to highlight that Washington has imposed licensing requirements on all US tungsten scrap exports — a move that tightens domestic supply and underscores the metal's strategic importance to American defense, semiconductor, and high-performance tooling sectors.

For Almonty, which has been processing ore at its Sangdong mine in South Korea for over a month, the export restriction reinforces the company's value proposition as a non-Chinese supplier of the critical metal. The timing is notable: the announcement lands just as the company's board has authorized a substantial share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its own valuation.

The Buyback and the Balance Sheet

The repurchase plan, approved for up to 14.4 million common shares — roughly five percent of outstanding stock — carries a maximum value of $300 million and runs for 36 months starting August 24. Management framed the decision around a perceived disconnect between the market price and the underlying worth of the company's assets.

That conviction is backed by a balance sheet that has undergone a dramatic transformation. Second-quarter results, covering the period ended June 30, showed revenue of CAD 43.0 million, a 498 percent surge year-over-year, with net income swinging to CAD 181.8 million from a CAD 58.2 million loss in the prior-year quarter. The company also holds a cash position of CAD 1.2 billion.

Nearly all of that quarterly revenue — CAD 42.9 million of the CAD 43.0 million total — came from the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, aided by European spot prices for ammonium paratungstate that climbed to $3,075 per metric ton unit.

A Series of Milestones

The buyback is just the latest in a string of developments that have reshaped the company's profile. The delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange was finalized roughly a month ago, and the stock has gained 61.4 percent since that move. The Sangdong production start, now more than a month old, has contributed a 10.9 percent advance. An expanded offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders — extending the contract to 21 years and increasing volume by 40 percent to 4.41 million metric ton units — has added 26.9 percent since its announcement.

The shares have climbed 96 percent year-to-date, though Monday's session saw modest weakness. The stock traded at €15.27 in Frankfurt, down 2.0 percent, while the secondary listing on Nasdaq showed minimal movement at $15.55, nearly flat against Friday's close of $15.57. The seven-day change sits at minus 0.8 percent. At roughly 26 percent below the 52-week high of €20.61, reached in April, the recent pullback reflects some profit-taking after an extended rally — though the 30-day gain of 58 percent suggests the underlying momentum remains intact.

Divergent Views on Valuation

Not everyone shares management's optimism about the share price. Diamond Equity Research cut its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate on August 19, lowering the figure from $0.55 to $0.39. The revision came a day after Almonty reported quarterly revenue that fell short of the FactSet consensus estimate of $45.7 million.

Institutional interest tells a different story. Bank of America Corp. DE increased its stake in the company, according to a regulatory filing published August 22 — a move market watchers often interpret as a vote of confidence, even if it doesn't necessarily dampen short-term volatility.

A Converging Narrative

The combination of the US export restriction, the buyback program, and growing institutional attention paints a picture of a company operating at the intersection of resource policy and corporate strategy. The buyback, which permits purchases on both the Nasdaq and alternative trading venues, provides a structural floor beneath the stock even as analysts remain divided on near-term earnings prospects.

For investors, the central question is whether the operational turnaround — driven by Panasqueira's output and Sangdong's ramp-up — can continue to justify the market's enthusiasm. The export ban adds a geopolitical tailwind that wasn't present when the rally began, but the valuation debate between the company's board and skeptical analysts remains unresolved.