TKMS Analysts Converge on 115 Euros as Frigate Backlog Swells to Eight Ships

Two of Europe's more closely watched research houses have landed on the same 115-euro price target for TKMS — from opposite directions. Deutsche Bank Research lifted its objective from 112 euros while reaffirming a Buy rating, and Bernstein Research trimmed its own from 120 euros while keeping an Outperform stance. The shared destination, reached by way of an upgrade and a cut respectively, points to a common conviction: the naval defence group's operating performance and order intake are heading in the right direction.

The stock changed hands at 83.60 euros on the day of the notes, a modest gain of 0.4%. That followed a sharper move earlier in the week, when TKMS closed at 83.30 euros, up 3.5% on a Friday session driven not by company news but by a broad bid for European defence names.

Two Roads to the Same Number

At Deutsche Bank, analyst Sriram Krishnan tied his higher target to expectations of a strong finish to the 2025/26 fiscal year, citing a solid order intake and robust operating momentum. Bernstein's team, according to media reports, sees TKMS beating market expectations with its results and has dangled the prospect of an upward revision to the company's medium-term EBIT target. Both houses expect a powerful closing stretch to fiscal 2026, underpinned by contract execution already under way and visible gains in operating performance.

Berlin's Frigates Bulk Up the Order Book

Behind that confidence sits a procurement decision that has reshaped the company's pipeline. The budget committee of the Bundestag approved the purchase of four additional MEKO® A-200 DEU frigates, taking the programme to eight vessels in total and extending the running series production. According to NDR reports, the tranche carries a volume of roughly 5.3 billion euros. A company spokesperson said the build location for the extra ships had not yet been settled. The first unit from the frigate series is scheduled for completion and handover at the end of 2029 — a timeline that locks in years of workload for the shipyards in the surface-vessel segment and gives long-term capacity planning a firmer footing.

Sector Tailwinds, Not Company News

The Friday rally that carried TKMS higher had little to do with the company itself. Aerospace and defence ranked among the market's strongest segments into the weekend, Dow Jones reported, and a Morgan Stanley industry study added fuel by predicting a pickup in order awards toward year-end. The analysis pointed to expected outflows from defence budgets — Germany's federal budget chief among them — and raised the possibility of a seasonal rally in the sector. Traders responded by buying across a range of defence names, TKMS included, as a steadier overall market channeled fresh money into the defensive growth segment.

The Year So Far, and What Comes Next

Shareholders have a 26% gain since the start of the year to show for the run. Whether that momentum carries depends heavily on the detailed figures still to come. TKMS has pencilled in December 7, 2026, for publication of its annual financial report, the next fixed date on the corporate calendar. That release will settle the question of whether the company can fully deliver on the optimistic operating-profit and order-intake forecasts now stacked up behind its 115-euro consensus target.