TKMS: A Rival Emerges in Kiel Just as the Order Book Hits Record Depth
Published on 08/08/2026 at 17:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The naval defence landscape in Germany has shifted decisively, and not everyone is on the winning side. While thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) celebrates a string of government contracts, Rheinmetall is now openly challenging the Kiel-based shipbuilder on its home turf.
Rheinmetall unveiled its GMF 140 frigate concept on Monday — a roughly 140-metre, 6,000-tonne warship designed to compete directly with TKMS offerings. The defence group initially plans to pitch the vessel for a North American procurement programme before marketing it to NATO and partner navies. Industry observers at the naval publication Quwa have explicitly framed the move as a response to Berlin's recent procurement decision, which dealt Rheinmetall a significant blow.
That decision came in late June, when the German government scrapped the F126 frigate programme and instead ordered up to eight MEKO A-200 frigates from TKMS. The base contract is worth €6.3 billion, with an option for an additional €5.3 billion. The reversal was particularly stinging for Rheinmetall's subsidiary NVL, which had submitted a joint bid worth roughly €15.2 billion as general contractor — a proposal that was ultimately rejected.
A Second Front Opens in Canada
The German frigate order, however, is far from the only pillar of TKMS's growth story. In early July, Canada designated the company as the preferred bidder for its patrol submarine programme, a project that could encompass up to twelve boats and carry a potential double-digit billion-euro price tag.
That news galvanised the analyst community. mwb Research lifted its price target for TKMS from €125 to €135 in early July, reaffirming a buy recommendation with explicit reference to the prospective Canadian windfall.
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The stock's recent momentum also reflects a broader corporate transformation. On Friday, thyssenkrupp shareholders approved the spin-off of the materials division TK Accelis at an extraordinary general meeting. Market commentators increasingly cite TKMS's own October 2025 listing as evidence that carved-out divisions can thrive independently of the thyssenkrupp conglomerate — a validation of the group's restructuring blueprint rather than an operational catalyst for the shipbuilder itself.
The Numbers Due on 12 August
All eyes now turn to Wednesday, 12 August, when TKMS publishes its third-quarter report for fiscal year 2025/26. mwb Research projects revenue of €1.78 billion for the first nine months, up from €1.59 billion in the prior-year period. Operating profit is expected to rise from €97 million to €102 million.
The third quarter should see the surface vessel division recover from a softer second quarter, while submarine projects are likely to progress according to plan. The picture is more muted at subsidiary Atlas Elektronik, where delayed deliveries are expected to weigh on results.
The already-announced frigate contract is not expected to be formally signed until the fourth quarter, which would trigger an advance payment. mwb Research estimated in late July that TKMS could close the year with an order backlog of around €25 billion — a figure that could swell to over €40 billion, or roughly 16 times annual revenue, should contract negotiations in Canada and India conclude successfully.
A €59 Gulf Between Analyst Views
Ahead of the earnings release, the analyst community remains sharply divided. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its buy recommendation in late July with a €110 price target, arguing that projects across all divisions are advancing steadily regardless of quarterly revenue timing fluctuations in shipbuilding.
mwb Research, meanwhile, characterised the recent share price decline as unjustified, standing by its €135 target on the strength of planning certainty derived from a well-filled order book. A third house takes a markedly more cautious stance, setting a price target of just €76 while describing the company's margin guidance of over 6 percent as conservative even against a careful revenue outlook.
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Volatility at the Close
The market's reaction to this confluence of record orders and fresh competition has been characteristically erratic. TKMS shares closed Friday at €88.20, down 2.11 percent on the day. The stock remains 17.25 percent below its 52-week high set in October. Yet over the full trading week, the shares still gained 7.96 percent — evidence that the recent run of contract announcements has more than offset the Friday pullback.
The longer-term uptrend since the IPO remains intact, even if day-to-day swings are pronounced. Investors will be scrutinising the Q3 report for confirmation that the growth narrative — built on frigate and submarine orders — can withstand the sharper competitive pressure now coming from Rheinmetall.
