TKMS: A Failed Bid in Kiel, a New Alliance in Spain, and a Share Price Still Climbing Back
Published on 08/07/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The timing could hardly have been more pointed. On 22 July, TKMS formally withdrew its non-binding offer for the Kiel-based rival yard German Naval Yards Kiel, ending months of on-off negotiations with the French owner CMN Naval over the purchase price. Two days later, the company signed a second memorandum of understanding with Spain's state-owned shipbuilder Navantia, deepening a partnership that now looks like the strategic centrepiece of TKMS's growth plans.
Chief executive Oliver Burkhard framed the abandoned takeover in deliberately understated terms. "Acquiring German Naval Yards Kiel would have been a nice option, but not a must," he said, attributing the collapse to a failure to agree on commercial terms. That leaves Rheinmetall — which had already submitted a non-binding offer in May and begun due diligence through its newly formed naval division, the former NVL — as the sole remaining bidder for the yard. TKMS, meanwhile, continues to hunt for additional production capacity in Kiel to work through its swelling order book.
Rheinmetall's Counter-Move
The failed deal lands at a moment when competition for naval contracts is sharpening noticeably. Rheinmetall has developed a new frigate design, the GMF 140, aimed squarely at the segment where TKMS has been collecting billion-euro orders from the German armed forces. The move is partly a response to a bruising setback: in June, the defence ministry terminated the F126 frigate project with the general contractor that had been in discussion. Instead of six large F126 frigates, the Bundeswehr now plans to order eight smaller MEKO A-200 vessels from TKMS, with the first delivery scheduled for 2029 — considerably earlier than the original F126 timeline. For Rheinmetall, that was a direct loss of business to a domestic competitor, one it is now evidently trying to offset with its own frigate development.
A Record Order Book
The strategic repositioning is underpinned by an order pipeline that has reached historic levels. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2025/26, TKMS reported a record order backlog of €18.7 billion and lifted its revenue guidance to growth of 2 to 5 percent. The prior fiscal year 2024/25 had already seen order intake surge to roughly €8.8 billion — six times the previous year's figure — while net profit climbed to €108 million.
Recent contract wins add further ballast. Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, awarded TKMS the contract for up to twelve submarines with an estimated value exceeding €10 billion, according to Reuters. The Bundestag, meanwhile, approved a €12 billion order for up to eight MEKO A-200 DEU frigates, as reported by Bloomberg. Against that backdrop, the GNYK retreat reads less as a setback and more as a deliberate focus on more profitable international partnerships.
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What the Numbers Will Show
Investors get their next read on the company on 12 August, when TKMS publishes third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2025/26. Analysts at mwb research expect revenue of €1.78 billion for the first nine months, up from €1.59 billion, with operating profit rising from €97 million to €102 million. The near-term trajectory, they argue, hinges on the anticipated frigate contract, which is expected to be signed in the fourth quarter and to include an advance payment — a detail that would matter for the company's liquidity planning.
Bernstein Research reaffirmed its "Market-Perform" rating with a price target of €76 on 22 July. Analyst Adrien Rabier, however, considers the company's 2026 revenue target excessively conservative given first-half momentum — a hint that the upcoming numbers could surprise to the upside.
The Share Price Picture
The stock has been volatile in recent sessions. On Friday, the shares slipped 1.89 percent to €88.40, having closed the previous day at €90.10. The weekly gain still stands at a solid 8.20 percent, underscoring the broader recovery from the year's low in late November. The stock remains 17.06 percent below its 52-week high of €106.58, reached in mid-October.
The secondary source notes a slightly different weekly figure — a gain of 10.28 percent as of Thursday's close, with the shares still 15.46 percent off the October peak. Either way, the pattern is consistent: a sharp rebound that has yet to fully recapture the heights of last year's rally.
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The recent pullback appears to reflect the market digesting a dense news flow — the GNYK withdrawal, Rheinmetall's competitive thrust, and the looming earnings report. When TKMS reports on 12 August, the focus will likely be on progress toward signing the frigate contract and on whether the growth pace of recent quarters can be sustained alongside the Navantia partnership.
