TKMS: A €6.3 Billion Frigate Win, a Canadian Submarine Shortlist, and a €25 Billion Order Book

TKMS holds a €25B+ backlog, booked a €6.3B MEKO frigate order, and raised FY guidance after nine-month revenue rose 19% to €1.89B.

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems is heading into the final stretch of its fiscal year with an order book that most European defense contractors can only envy. The Kiel-based shipbuilder is sitting on a backlog north of €25 billion, a cushion built on a string of naval contracts that has kept its yards busy well into the next decade.

The headline item remains the MEKO A-200 DEU frigate program. On June 24, TKMS locked in an order for four vessels for the German Navy worth €6.3 billion, with options attached for four more hulls. It stands as the largest surface-ship contract in the company's history and forms the backbone of the current workload.

That award lands in the fourth quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year. Management expects order intake to top €5 billion in that closing quarter alone, a sharp step up from the €3.6 billion booked across the first nine months.

Canada, Norway, and a Spanish Partnership

Underwater, the pipeline looks just as full. Ottawa named TKMS preferred bidder for its Patrol Submarine Project on July 7, a program covering as many as twelve boats. Contract negotiations are slated to run through the end of 2027, with the first four units scheduled for delivery in 2034.

Norway, meanwhile, has expanded its own fleet, ordering two additional 212CD-class submarines. That brings the country's total for the class to six.

To keep pace with global demand, TKMS is leaning on alliances rather than going it alone. More than a month ago, the company signed a letter of intent with Spanish shipbuilder Navantia. The two partners aim to agree on a joint framework for selected projects by the end of 2026, with pooled capacity and shorter delivery times as the stated priorities.

A Deal That Didn't Happen

Not every expansion move has gone through. On July 21, TKMS walked away from its takeover of German Naval Yards Kiel after the two sides failed to agree on economic terms, as Reuters reported citing the company. CEO Oliver Burkhard framed the decision in measured terms, saying an acquisition would have been a good option but not a necessary one. The move underscores a management approach that applies strict profitability criteria to any target rather than chasing capacity at any cost.

Guidance Raised on a Strong Nine-Month Run

The operational numbers gave the leadership team reason to lift its full-year targets for 2025/26 more than a month ago. Revenue is now expected to grow between 10% and 12%, with an adjusted EBIT margin of up to 6.5%.

Those figures rest on nine-month results that showed revenue climbing 19% to €1.89 billion, while adjusted EBIT advanced 13% to €110 million.

Over the medium term, TKMS is targeting annual revenue growth of roughly 10% and an adjusted EBIT margin above 7%.

Where the Stock Stands

The equity has gained 25% since the start of the year, though it closed yesterday at €81.70, down 2.0%, and now trades 25% below its 52-week high. The paper last changed hands at €83.00 in earlier trading. With the defense sector drawing more cautious commentary of late, market participants are focusing squarely on whether the company's medium- and long-term projects can carry the valuation.

The next hard data point arrives on December 7, 2026, when TKMS publishes results for the fourth quarter and the full 2025/26 fiscal year. Until then, execution against the order book takes center stage.