Thyssenkrupp: Two Buy Calls, Two Lower Targets, and a Steel Business Still in the Waiting Room

Thyssenkrupp has handed investors a pair of analyst notes that point the same way: less generous valuations, but no change of heart. On Thursday, DZ Bank cut its fair value for the shares from 16 to 15 euros while keeping its "Kaufen" — buy — rating. Deutsche Bank Research, on the same day, trimmed its price target from 18 to 17 euros and stayed at "Buy." In both cases, a more cautious number came attached to a fundamentally positive recommendation, not a downgrade.

That distinction matters because the group is asking the market to price two very different things at once: a restructuring that has already been partly delivered, and a second step that exists only as preparation.

What is done, and what is merely being readied

The completed piece is tk accelis. When the materials business was spun off just over a week ago, Thyssenkrupp shareholders received one share in the new entity for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they held, with the parent retaining 51%. Reuters reported the arithmetical discount this produced in the Thyssenkrupp share price — and that mechanical effect should not be read as a loss of confidence in the company. Investors were handed a stake in the spun-off business at the same time; shareholder value was adjusted, not destroyed.

For tk accelis, Thyssenkrupp has set medium-term targets of an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4–5% and annual revenue growth of more than 4%. Those are objectives, not reported results, and the standalone company's commercial test is a separate matter from its completed listing.

Steel is the other story, and it is a stage behind. Chief executive Miguel López told Reuters on 28 October that the steel division is being prepared as the next candidate for a capital-market spin-off. A sale is off the table for now, after talks with partners came to nothing — the conversations with Jindal Steel are, according to Reuters, on ice. What López described is an option, not a resolved transaction, and the preparation should not be conflated with the finished carve-out of the materials arm.

The hydrogen file moves on its own track

Operationally, there is separate news at Duisburg. The final amended funding decision for the tkH2Steel project allows a gradual and more flexible increase in the hydrogen share of the process, and Thyssenkrupp Steel is preparing a fresh tender for long-term hydrogen supply. That flexibility concerns the project itself; it does not settle the ownership question hanging over the steel division.

The calendar as the next arbiter

The next hard data point is the group's annual financial report for fiscal 2025/2026, scheduled for 8 December 2026. An investor relations roadshow in London is set for 4 November 2026. The announcement of the report date, it should be said, contained no business figures of its own.

So the framework for investors until then is straightforward, if easy to blur: the stock-market future of steel is a possibility to be valued as such, not a lever already pulled, while the annual report will supply the financial baseline against which the whole restructuring is judged. Strategy and earnings belong together — but they are not the same thing, and treating a preparation as an accomplishment would be premature.