Thyssenkrupp Sells Historic HKM Stake to Salzgitter as Analysts Look Past Nucera's Setback

Thyssenkrupp divests HKM stake to Salzgitter, trims Nucera guidance, but analysts upgrade stock on restructuring progress.

The conglomerate's restructuring story is gathering momentum even as its green hydrogen ambitions hit a wall. Thyssenkrupp has agreed to sell its stake in Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) to rival steelmaker Salzgitter, severing a partnership that had long symbolised the tight interweaving of Germany's steel industry. The divestment removes another non-core piece from the portfolio and aligns with a broader reshaping that includes the planned separation of the tk accelis division, which won shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting on 7 August.

The HKM exit comes at a moment when Thyssenkrupp's share price is riding a wave of analyst upgrades, yet the operational picture is decidedly mixed. The most conspicuous drag is at Thyssenkrupp Nucera, where the company has abandoned its in-house series production of SOEC stacks — the high-temperature electrolysis technology that was meant to open up new hydrogen markets. The retreat, announced just over two weeks ago, has forced a sharp downward revision to the unit's earnings guidance. Nucera now expects an EBIT loss of between €105 million and €75 million for the current fiscal year, compared with the previous range of €80 million to €30 million. A one-off charge of €30 million will weigh on the fourth quarter.

Revenue guidance has also been trimmed, to €450–500 million from €450–550 million, a level well below last year's €845 million. Order intake is now projected at €550–670 million, down from an earlier ceiling of €850 million, while the Green Hydrogen segment's sales expectation has been cut to €100–130 million. The pace of the green hydrogen ramp-up is proving considerably slower than the company had anticipated just months ago.

The contrasting fortunes within the group are stark. The marine division TKMS, by contrast, has become a pillar of stability, with an order book that now exceeds €20 billion, bolstered by major contracts for Canadian submarines and German frigates booked in July. Steel and hydrogen, meanwhile, remain under pressure.

The quarterly numbers published on 13 August tell a similar story of divergence. Third-quarter revenue rose to €8.8 billion from €8.2 billion a year earlier, with adjusted EBIT of €183 million. Yet management used the same announcement to lower its full-year sales forecast, acknowledging that operational progress and growth momentum are not moving in lockstep. Mid-August also saw the company spotlight the tenth anniversary of its Carbon2Chem® project, presenting it as a blueprint for climate-neutral industry — a reminder that Thyssenkrupp continues to press its transformation narrative alongside the near-term figures.

Analysts have largely chosen to focus on the strategic overhaul rather than the Nucera setback. The DZ Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy on 21 August, lifting its price target from €11 to €16. Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating on 15 August and raised its target from €19 to €22. Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi followed on 22 August with a target hike to €20 and a buy recommendation. Deutsche Bank Research had already confirmed its Buy stance with a €16 target on 14 August. Not everyone is convinced, however: JP Morgan kept its Neutral rating on the same day, a counterpoint to the prevailing optimism.

The market has responded favourably to the upgrades. The share price closed at €14.67 on Friday, down 1.2 percent on the day, but that modest pullback masks a weekly gain of 9.2 percent and a 23 percent advance over the past 30 days. The stock sits just 3.4 percent below its 52-week high of €15.18, reached on 28 August. Technical indicators, with an RSI of 68.6, suggest the rally is getting stretched, yet the gap between the current price and the new analyst targets remains sizeable.

For investors, the picture is increasingly two-sided: the portfolio cleanup — the HKM sale, the tk accelis spin-off and TKMS's bulging order book — is winning over the analyst community, while the hydrogen ambitions at Nucera have been shelved for now. Whether the operational momentum from the third quarter can offset the dimmed full-year outlook remains the central question, and the split among analysts suggests the answer is far from settled.