Thyssenkrupp's Two-Track Turnaround: Analysts Raise Targets as Hydrogen Unit Stumbles

Thyssenkrupp stock climbs 22% in a month, nearing its 52-week high, after Q3 results and analyst upgrades, but hydrogen setback and financing questions remain.

The arithmetic of Thyssenkrupp's revival is getting harder to ignore. Over the past month, the Essen-based conglomerate's shares have climbed roughly 22 percent, and the stock now sits within striking distance of its 52-week high of 15.18 euros, reached on August 28. At Friday's close of 14.67 euros, the gap is a mere 3.4 percent — a remarkable position for a company that spent years as one of Germany's most-discussed turnaround stories.

The market's enthusiasm is not unfounded. On August 21, DZ Bank upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy," lifting its fair value from 11 to 16 euros. The move came just one day after Bank of America raised its price target from 19 to 22 euros, citing both a more credible profitability outlook underpinned by the ongoing restructuring and tangible progress on the group's strategic realignment. Both banks pointed to the quarterly results published on August 13 as the catalyst for their renewed conviction.

The Numbers Behind the Narrative

Thyssenkrupp's third-quarter figures for fiscal 2025/2026 showed rising revenue and a stronger adjusted EBIT, prompting management to narrow and raise its full-year guidance. The lower end of the adjusted EBIT forecast now stands at 600 million euros, up from a previous floor of 500 million, with the range set at 600 to 900 million euros. The net income band was also tightened upward.

The quarterly update coincided with an extraordinary general meeting's approval of the spin-off of tk accelis — a cornerstone of the group's restructuring that Bank of America explicitly identifies as a value driver. The listing of the separated TK Accelis Group is expected in October, and investors will get a deeper look at the steel division's strategy at a capital markets day for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe scheduled for late September.

Not every analyst is equally convinced. Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on August 14, and Jefferies had confirmed its own "Buy" stance a day earlier. JPMorgan, however, held at "Neutral" on the same day — a reminder that the restructuring story has yet to be uniformly priced in across the Street.

A Setback in Hydrogen, a Boost from Marine

The most significant counterweight to the positive momentum came from thyssenkrupp nucera, the group's hydrogen subsidiary. Early in the week, nucera abandoned its plans for SOEC stack production, a decision that will cost roughly 30 million euros in the fourth quarter through write-downs on the pilot plant and accumulated development costs. The company subsequently lowered its EBIT guidance for the current fiscal year to a loss of between 105 million and 75 million euros, down from a prior range of minus 80 million to minus 30 million euros. Revenue expectations for the green hydrogen segment were also trimmed, with the division now expected to generate 100 to 130 million euros rather than up to 170 million euros.

Nucera does, however, point to positive effects of 10 million euros on EBIT and 20 million euros on cash flow for fiscal 2026/27 as a result of the strategic pivot. For the group as a whole, the setback is contained — a testament to the operational breadth that allows stronger divisions to absorb disappointments elsewhere.

That breadth is evident in the marine business. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) raised its own forecast on August 12 after nine months of the current fiscal year, now expecting significantly stronger growth than previously anticipated. Alongside steel, the naval unit has emerged as one of the group's key growth engines.

Financing Questions and Technical Signals

Not all loose ends are tied. Media reports indicate that Thyssenkrupp is in advanced discussions to adjust the financing structure for a green steel plant project estimated at three billion euros. The venture is considered a critical component of the transformation, but the final financing arrangement has yet to be settled.

The stock's technical position adds another layer of nuance. With a relative strength index of 68.6, the shares are approaching overbought territory — hardly surprising given the recent run. The seven-day gain stands at 7.9 percent, while the year-to-date advance has reached 57 percent. Market capitalization currently sits at 9.18 billion euros.

The spread of analyst views — from JPMorgan's cautious "Neutral" to Bank of America's ambitious 22-euro target — underscores that the market is still weighing the execution risks embedded in Thyssenkrupp's plan. The current price of 14.59 euros leaves considerable headroom to the most optimistic forecasts, but the path forward depends on whether the group delivers on its promised steps, from the accelis separation to the steel plant financing.