Thyssenkrupp's Re-Rating Accelerates: Three Banks Raise Targets as Steel Separation Looms

Thyssenkrupp shares climb 57% YTD, boosted by strong Q3 results and analyst price target hikes up to EUR 22, with steel spin-off potential in focus.

The numbers behind Thyssenkrupp's recent share price performance have become almost dizzying. Since the start of the year, the stock has climbed 57 percent, closing Friday at EUR 14.67 after a modest 1.2 percent pullback. That small retreat does little to obscure the bigger picture: the industrial group is just 3.4 percent shy of its 52-week high, with a market capitalization of EUR 9.18 billion.

What has propelled this move? A convergence of operational delivery and a decisive shift in sell-side sentiment. Within a matter of days in mid-August, three separate banks raised their price targets, each citing a different facet of the same underlying story.

Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi was the first to move, setting a target of EUR 20 and reaffirming a buy recommendation. His rationale: Thyssenkrupp is rich in catalysts and financial firepower, and still trades at a discount to peers. Bank of America followed with an even bolder call, lifting its target from EUR 19 to EUR 22 — the highest on the Street — while maintaining its buy rating. The DZ Bank completed the trio with a full U-turn, upgrading from hold to buy and more than doubling its target from EUR 11 to EUR 16.

A Third-Quarter Foundation

These revisions were not made in a vacuum. Roughly two weeks ago, Thyssenkrupp reported third-quarter results for fiscal 2025/2026 that showed a company in better shape than many had anticipated. Adjusted EBIT rose 18 percent to EUR 183 million, while revenue grew 8 percent. Management also tightened its full-year guidance, lifting the lower end of the adjusted EBIT range from EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million and narrowing the potential net loss ceiling from EUR 800 million to EUR 700 million.

The market's response to that guidance upgrade was immediate — the shares added 10 percent in the days that followed. The stock has since gained another 6.3 percent even as a subsidiary delivered unwelcome news. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the group's electrolysis unit, announced it was exiting series production of SOEC electrolyzer stacks, a move that forced the subsidiary to widen its loss forecast to between minus EUR 105 million and minus EUR 75 million for the current fiscal year, with a one-off charge of around EUR 30 million expected in the fourth quarter. For the parent company, the impact has proven manageable.

The Steel Question

For Bank of America, the decisive value driver is structural rather than operational. The bank's analysts see a credible path to higher profitability through the ongoing restructuring, with the potential partial separation of the steel business serving as the key catalyst. The group has already demonstrated its willingness to prune its portfolio — the recent spin-off of TK Accelis followed last October's IPO of marine-shipbuilding subsidiary TKMS, in which 49 percent of shares were distributed to existing shareholders.

A similar solution for the steel division would, in the analysts' view, make the valuation of the remaining businesses clearer and give investors a cleaner route to the higher-margin segments of the group. The logic is straightforward: separate the margin-weak steel operations, and the market can more easily price the parts of Thyssenkrupp that generate stronger returns.

Beyond the Balance Sheet

There is also a longer-term narrative at play. The Carbon2Chem research project, which recently marked its tenth anniversary, underscores the group's ambition to serve as a blueprint for a climate-neutral industry. Such initiatives may not move the share price in the short term, but they reinforce the company's positioning in an environment where decarbonization increasingly determines the competitive standing of industrial conglomerates.

The question for investors now is less whether Thyssenkrupp is operationally on track — the quarterly numbers and upgraded guidance answer that fairly convincingly — but whether the recent re-rating has already priced in the analysts' newfound optimism. With targets ranging from EUR 16 to EUR 22, the three banks see further upside, even if a meaningful portion of that re-rating has already been captured in the rally of recent weeks.

The combination of improving operations, a raised guidance floor, and the prospect of steel separation has clearly reshaped how the capital market views this stock. Whether the remaining gap between the current price and the highest targets closes quickly or takes time, the direction of travel has become notably clearer than it was just a few months ago.