Thyssenkrupp's Rally Nears a Crossroads as Order Books Swell and Technicals Flash Caution
Published on 08/15/2026 at 08:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market's verdict on Thyssenkrupp's restructuring efforts came through loud and clear on Thursday, when the industrial conglomerate delivered its third-quarter results for fiscal 2025/26. The headline numbers were enough to push the shares to fresh multi-year highs, with the stock changing hands at €13.79 shortly after the release — a whisker below its 52-week peak of €14.00.
The figures themselves tell a story of a group clawing its way back to profitability. Revenue advanced 8 percent to €8.8 billion, while adjusted EBIT climbed 18 percent to €183 million. More significantly for a company that has spent years in the red, net income swung to a positive €34 million against a loss of €190 million in the corresponding period last year. Management also lifted the lower end of its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance by €100 million to a range of €600 million to €900 million, while capping the expected annual net loss at €700 million.
The Engine Room: Steel and Submarines
The earnings improvement was powered by two divisions that have historically been the group's most troubled. Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe more than doubled its segment EBIT to €73 million from €31 million a year earlier, bringing the nine-month operating profit to €373 million — double the prior-year figure. The steel unit's recovery is particularly notable given that it was exploring a spin-off as recently as May, following the collapse of takeover talks with Jindal Steel.
The naval arm, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), has emerged as the group's growth engine. The division has built its order backlog to more than €20 billion, was named preferred bidder for Canada's submarine program covering twelve 212CD-class vessels, and signed a contract with the German Navy for four MEKO A-200 DEU frigates with options for four more. TKMS has sharply raised its revenue outlook from 2 to 5 percent growth to 10 to 12 percent, with an expected operating margin of 6.5 percent.
The July completion of the sale of Thyssenkrupp's HKM stake to Salzgitter AG added a €131 million balance-sheet boost to the quarterly net result — a reminder that portfolio pruning is freeing up capital alongside operational gains.
The Drag: Auto Parts and Green Tech
Not every division is pulling its weight. Automotive Technology saw revenue slip 3 percent to €1.7 billion, with adjusted EBIT falling to €38 million from €61 million on lower volumes and higher special freight costs. The pain was sharper at Decarbon Technologies, where revenue tumbled 19 percent to €694 million as customers delayed decisions. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the hydrogen-focused subsidiary, is bracing for a deeper full-year loss following its exit from the SOEC business.
This two-speed dynamic — established core businesses improving while future-oriented units struggle — is the central tension in the investment case. The group's restructuring narrative is gaining credibility, but it is not yet a clean sweep.
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A Technical Reckoning?
The share price performance has been nothing short of spectacular. The stock has gained roughly 48 to 49 percent since the start of the year, with a 10 percent advance in the past seven trading sessions alone. On Friday, the shares added another 3.7 percent to reach €13.83.
Yet the velocity of the move has stretched the technical picture. The 14-day relative strength index sits at roughly 71.5 to 71.7 — firmly in overbought territory — while the stock trades about 35 percent above its 200-day moving average. Annualized volatility of 38 percent suggests the rally carries a speculative component that could unwind quickly if sentiment shifts.
There are also operational risks the chart does not capture. Low water levels on the Rhine have forced the company to set up a task force to secure raw material deliveries to its Duisburg steelworks, which normally requires 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes of daily supply. CFO Axel Hamann has confirmed there are no plans to shut down the blast furnaces, but the dependence on river levels and rail alternatives remains a live uncertainty.
What Comes Next
The next catalyst is the capital markets day for Steel Europe scheduled for late September in London, where management is expected to lay out the division's future structure and earnings potential. A convincing presentation could reset the valuation debate, positioning the steel unit as a rehabilitated value driver rather than a drag on the group.
The bull case rests on both Steel Europe and TKMS maintaining momentum. The bear case warns of a market that has run ahead of operational substance, with an overbought technical setup vulnerable to sharp corrections. The near-term direction likely hinges on whether TKMS can convert its record order book into margins at the guided 6.5 percent level — and whether the Rhine logistics situation deteriorates further.
For now, the market is giving Thyssenkrupp the benefit of the doubt. The question is how long that patience lasts if the operational reality fails to keep pace with the rally.
