Thyssenkrupp's Rally Faces Its Toughest Test Yet: A Hydrogen Write-Down Meets a Wall of Analyst Optimism
Published on 08/31/2026 at 18:42 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The juxtaposition could hardly be starker. On one side, Thyssenkrupp's hydrogen subsidiary Nucera is abandoning its plans for mass production of SOEC stacks, forcing a roughly €30 million impairment in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025/26. On the other, the Essen-based conglomerate's order intake has doubled, and a parade of investment banks is tripping over itself to raise price targets.
The net effect on the group's bottom line is unambiguous: full-year EBIT guidance has been slashed to a range of minus €105 million to minus €75 million, down from the previously communicated minus €80 million to minus €30 million. Yet the market's response has been remarkably forgiving, with shares trading near their 52-week high even as the hydrogen unit's profitability timeline stretches further into the distance.
The Analyst Stampede
The past week has seen a veritable cascade of upgrades that would be remarkable for any company, let alone one still wrestling with the structural challenges of European steelmaking. Bank of America kicked things off on August 20, lifting its price target to €22 from €19, citing a revaluation of earnings in the steel division. The very next day, Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi followed with a target of €20 and a maintained Buy rating, arguing that Thyssenkrupp is rich in both catalysts and cash, and that the valuation still has catching up to do.
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The DZ Bank added its voice on August 21, upgrading the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" and raising its fair value from €11 to €16. Not everyone is swept up in the enthusiasm — JPMorgan held firm at "Neutral" with a €15 target in mid-August — but the weight of opinion has shifted decisively.
This analyst affection has translated into tangible market performance. The stock has gained roughly 20 percent over the past 30 days, and currently trades about 18 percent above its 50-day moving average of €12.28. At the time of writing, shares were changing hands at €14.41, down 1.7 percent on the day after closing at €14.67 on Friday — a modest pullback that looks almost trivial against the recent run. The 52-week high of €15.18, reached only recently, sits just 5.0 percent above the current price.
The Hydrogen Paradox
Nucera's commercial trajectory tells a more encouraging story than the impairment suggests. The company is now pursuing projects totaling roughly 14 gigawatts with an estimated contract value of €7 billion, while its broader pipeline has expanded to 57 gigawatts worth approximately €29 billion. The decision to double down on established electrolysis technologies appears to be paying off commercially, even if the retreat from SOEC manufacturing creates short-term pain on the income statement.
The strategic logic is clear: abandon a technology with uncertain mass-market economics in favor of proven processes that are winning orders. But the revised guidance serves as a reminder that the path to profitability in future technologies is rarely linear — a reality that investors seem willing to accept for now, given the broader transformation story unfolding across the group.
A Breakup Takes Shape
The conglomerate's restructuring is advancing on multiple fronts. On August 7, shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting approved the spin-off of the tk accelis division. The parent company will retain 51 percent of the new entity, with 49 percent distributed to existing Thyssenkrupp shareholders. Listing on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is targeted for the end of 2026.
The operational numbers from the soon-to-be-independent unit provide reason for confidence. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025/26, tk accelis generated revenue of €3.2 billion, up 5 percent year-on-year, while adjusted EBIT surged 179 percent to €81 million.
The Green Steel Question
Beyond the corporate restructuring, the billion-euro question concerns the financing of Duisburg's green steel transformation. During the mid-August quarterly conference call, management referenced ongoing discussions, with reports suggesting advanced negotiations over a package worth €3 billion. The outcome of these talks will be a critical signal for investors weighing whether the costly shift to climate-friendlier production methods can be adequately funded.
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Operational progress in the steel division continues apace. On August 20, Primetals Technologies announced the final acceptance of a new continuous casting plant at the Duisburg site — a concrete step in the modernization program. Two days earlier, Thyssenkrupp celebrated the tenth anniversary of its Carbon2Chem project, which aims to make CO2 from steel production usable for the chemical industry.
A Complex Calculus
For investors, the current setup is genuinely two-sided. The structural momentum — the tk accelis spin-off, Nucera's order book growth, the steel modernization — is real and increasingly visible. But the tightened hydrogen guidance and the still-unresolved financing question for Duisburg inject a note of caution into what has become a decidedly bullish narrative.
The coming weeks will likely hinge on whether the €3 billion financing package materializes. If it does, the already-elevated price targets could prove conservative. If not, the gap between analyst enthusiasm and operational reality may begin to widen. For now, the market is betting on the former — and the recent price action suggests that bet is being placed with conviction.
