Thyssenkrupp's Rally Faces a Fork in the Road: Green Steel Financing Questions Meet a Wall of Analyst Upgrades
Published on 08/30/2026 at 14:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The market's re-rating of Thyssenkrupp has been nothing short of spectacular, with the shares up 57 percent since the start of the year. Yet beneath the surface of this powerful advance sits a nagging uncertainty: the financing structure for the group's flagship green steel project in Duisburg is still up in the air.
Negotiations over the terms of that funding have been underway since mid-August, triggered by rising hydrogen costs and the possibility that state subsidy conditions could shift. For a company staking its industrial transformation on the promise of low-carbon steel, the economics of the entire venture hinge on reliable, affordable hydrogen prices. If those input costs stay elevated, the calculus changes — and with it, the balance between public support and Thyssenkrupp's own equity contribution.
A Fresh Wave of Bullish Calls
The market, however, has been focusing on the brighter side of the story. A flurry of analyst upgrades in the second half of August has given the shares fresh momentum. The DZ Bank moved its rating to "Buy" from "Hold" on 21 August, lifting its fair value target to €16 from €11. A day earlier, Bank of America raised its price objective to €22 from €19, citing a revaluation of the steel business and the group's restructuring prospects. Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi had also weighed in, setting a €20 target and reiterating a Buy recommendation, arguing that Thyssenkrupp is rich in catalysts and financial firepower while still trading at a discount to peers.
The timing of these calls was no coincidence. Roughly two weeks earlier, the group had delivered third-quarter results for fiscal 2025/2026 that beat expectations on several fronts. Adjusted EBIT climbed 18 percent to €183 million, while revenue grew 8 percent. Management also raised the floor of its full-year guidance, lifting the lower end of the adjusted EBIT range to €600 million from €500 million and trimming the upper limit of the projected group loss to €700 million from €800 million. Since that guidance upgrade, the stock has added 10 percent.
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Defence Momentum and Portfolio Simplification
While the steel division wrestles with its financing questions, the naval unit TKMS is providing a counterweight of good news. The segment has lifted its revenue forecast, buoyed by sharply rising demand from European navies — a geopolitical tailwind that investors increasingly view as a standalone value driver within the conglomerate.
The group has also been tidying up its structure. The IPO of the naval shipbuilding subsidiary last October, which placed 49 percent of the shares with existing shareholders, and the more recent spin-off of TK Accelis have given the remaining entity a clearer profile. Analysts now appear more comfortable assigning a distinct valuation to the slimmed-down Thyssenkrupp than they were a year ago.
A Setback That Didn't Stick
Not everything went smoothly. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the group's electrolyser subsidiary, announced roughly two weeks ago that it would exit series production of SOEC electrolyser stacks. The unit subsequently widened its loss forecast for the current fiscal year to between minus €75 million and minus €105 million, and flagged a one-off charge of around €30 million in the fourth quarter. For the parent company, however, the impact has been manageable — the shares have actually risen 6.3 percent since the announcement.
Where the Stock Stands Now
The shares closed Friday at €14.67, down 1.2 percent on the day, but that modest pullback does little to dent a 30-day advance of 23 percent. The stock now sits roughly 3.4 percent below its 52-week high of €15.18, reached on 28 August 2026, with a market capitalisation of €9.18 billion. The gap between the current price and the analysts' targets — which range from €16 to €22 — suggests the market sees further upside, even if a chunk of the recent re-rating is already baked in.
The Elephant in the Room
What remains unresolved is the Duisburg question. Until there is clarity on the final subsidy terms and the trajectory of hydrogen costs, the green steel plant will stay a source of investor caution. The company itself has remained tight-lipped about the details of the ongoing discussions. For now, the market seems willing to look past the uncertainty — but the financing puzzle is unlikely to disappear quietly, and it could yet test the durability of this rally.
Elsewhere, the group continues to push its decarbonisation agenda on a smaller scale. The Rasselstein division is planning an 8-megawatt solar installation to power its production, with construction slated to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026 and commissioning expected by mid-2027. Thyssenkrupp has also highlighted its decade-long Carbon2Chem project as a blueprint for climate-neutral industry — a reminder that the company wants to be seen as a technological leader in steel transformation, even as the financial details of its flagship project remain unresolved.
