Thyssenkrupp's Rally Builds on Multiple Fronts as Street Raises Targets and Spin-Off Nears

Three banks lift price targets on Thyssenkrupp; guidance raised, spin-off of tk accelis on track, but hydrogen unit drags.

The recent flurry of bullish analyst calls on Thyssenkrupp is proving hard to ignore. Within a matter of days, three major banks have lifted their price targets on the Essen-based industrial group, adding fresh momentum to a share price that has already climbed 46 percent since the start of the year.

The most recent move came on Friday, when Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi pushed his target to EUR 20 and reaffirmed a buy recommendation, pointing to a company that is rich in catalysts and financial firepower while its valuation still has room to catch up. That upgrade followed hot on the heels of the DZ Bank, which raised its rating from Hold to Buy and hiked its target from EUR 11 to EUR 16. Bank of America had already moved on August 20, lifting its target from EUR 19 to EUR 22 and keeping its buy stance, citing new EU steel import quotas set to take effect in July that should support the group's margins.

Operating Momentum Backs the Optimism

The analyst enthusiasm is not happening in a vacuum. When Thyssenkrupp published its nine-month figures for fiscal 2025/2026, management raised the lower end of its full-year guidance for adjusted EBIT from EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million. The group now expects adjusted earnings between EUR 600 million and EUR 900 million, narrowing a previously wider range of EUR 500 million to EUR 900 million.

Not every corner of the conglomerate is firing on all cylinders, however. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the hydrogen subsidiary in which the parent holds more than 50 percent, cut its outlook following its exit from the SOEC business. The decision, announced on August 11, is expected to leave a hole of roughly EUR 30 million in fourth-quarter EBIT due to write-downs on the pilot plant and development costs. Nucera now sees EBIT landing between minus EUR 105 million and minus EUR 75 million, down from a prior forecast of minus EUR 80 million to minus EUR 30 million. Revenue guidance was also slashed, with the subsidiary now projecting EUR 450 million to EUR 500 million, well below the EUR 845 million it generated last year.

Spin-Off Roadmap Takes Shape

While the hydrogen unit stumbles, the broader restructuring plan is advancing on schedule. An extraordinary general meeting on August 7 approved the separation of tk accelis, the former Materials Services division. The transaction will see shareholders receive one share in the new entity for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they hold. The business brings with it roughly 15,500 employees across more than 400 locations and generated around EUR 11.4 billion in revenue.

The commercial register entry is expected by the end of October, with the listing of TK Accelis Group AG & Co. KGaA to follow immediately after. Thyssenkrupp will initially hold 51 percent of the new company, a stake it plans to reduce to 30 percent over time, while 49 percent goes directly to existing shareholders.

Shares Close In on Multi-Year Highs

The market has responded warmly to the confluence of positive signals. On Monday, the stock closed at EUR 13.63, up 1.5 percent on the day. That puts the shares just 3.0 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 14.05, which was reached on August 17 — itself a five-year peak.

Over the past 30 days, the stock has gained 10 percent, and the year-to-date advance now stands at 46 percent. That rally reflects a broad reassessment of the company's prospects, though it also comes with elevated risk: the annualized 30-day volatility sits at 42 percent, a reminder that this remains a stock prone to sharp swings.

External factors are lending support as well. Beijing announced fresh stimulus measures on Friday following weak July economic data, a move that Bloomberg noted is benefiting commodity and steel-related equities. That tailwind, combined with the analyst upgrades, the improved profit guidance, and a concrete timeline for the tk accelis separation, gives investors a rare alignment of positive catalysts. The Nucera weakness remains a blemish on the story, but for now, it has done little to dent the broader bullish sentiment.