Thyssenkrupp's Rally Builds Momentum as Analysts Rewrite the Script on Steel

Thyssenkrupp stock surges 56% YTD, near 52-week high, as Citi, BofA, and DZ Bank raise targets on steel and marine strength.

The transformation of Thyssenkrupp from perennial turnaround case to market favourite is gathering pace, with a fresh wave of analyst upgrades pushing the conglomerate's shares to within striking distance of their 52-week high. The stock closed Friday at €14.67, leaving it just 3.4 percent shy of the €15.18 peak reached on 28 August — a gap that looks increasingly narrow given the momentum behind the equity.

That momentum is hard to argue with. Over the past 30 days, the shares have advanced 21 percent, while the year-to-date gain stands at 56 percent. The market capitalisation has swelled to €9.18 billion, and the distance from the 200-day moving average — a hefty 39 percent — underscores just how far the stock has broken from its longer-term trend.

A Wall of Upgrades

The catalyst for the latest leg higher has been a flurry of target-price revisions, with Citigroup and Bank of America leading the charge. Citi lifted its target to €20 on Friday while reaffirming a "Buy" rating, a day after Bank of America raised its own target from €19 to €22, also with a "Buy" stance. BofA's reasoning centres on a re-evaluation of the earnings power within the steel division — a segment long viewed as a drag on the group and now apparently being seen in a different light.

The DZ Bank followed suit on Friday, upgrading Thyssenkrupp from "Hold" to "Buy" and lifting its fair value from €11 to €16. That puts the Frankfurt-based house firmly in the optimists' camp, though not everyone is moving at the same speed. JPMorgan retains its neutral stance, having previously raised its target to €15.

The resulting target range — from €15 at JPMorgan to €22 at Bank of America — illustrates the breadth of opinion on the group's prospects. What unites most houses, however, is the view that the stock retains further upside even after its recent run.

Guidance Raised, Then Confirmed

The rally's origins trace back roughly three weeks, when the company raised the lower end of its earnings guidance for the current fiscal year. Thyssenkrupp now expects adjusted EBIT of €600 million to €900 million, up from a previous floor of €500 million, a move announced on 13 August alongside third-quarter results that showed rising revenues and improved adjusted EBIT. The net income range was also narrowed upwards.

The subsequent wave of analyst target hikes has served as a form of retrospective validation of that guidance, providing fresh fuel for the share price. Since the guidance revision, the stock has added 9.0 percent.

A Tale of Two Businesses

Beneath the headline numbers, however, lies a more nuanced picture. The naval subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems delivered its own positive surprise on 12 August, raising its forecast after nine months and now expecting significantly stronger growth than previously anticipated. Alongside steel, TKMS has emerged as one of the group's key growth engines.

The hydrogen division tells a different story. On the same day, Thyssenkrupp Nucera announced it would halt series production of its high-temperature electrolysis (SOEC) technology — a move that will cost roughly €30 million in the fourth quarter through writedowns on the pilot plant and accumulated development expenses. Nucera subsequently widened its EBIT guidance for the current year to a loss of €105 million to €75 million, from a previous range of €80 million to €30 million. Revenue expectations for the green hydrogen segment were also trimmed, to €100 million–€130 million from as much as €170 million.

There is a silver lining: Nucera points to positive effects of €10 million on EBIT and €20 million on cash flow for fiscal 2026/27 as a result of the strategic shift. For investors, the picture is distinctly two-sided — solid progress in the core steel and marine businesses, offset by an expensive retreat in hydrogen. The group's operational breadth, however, means setbacks in peripheral areas can be absorbed.

What Comes Next

With the shares trading at an annualised volatility of 45 percent, this remains a stock prone to swings in both directions. The analyst target spread of €15 to €22 leaves ample room for further movement in the weeks ahead.

Investors have two key dates on the horizon. A capital markets day for the steel division, Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, is scheduled for late September, where management is expected to provide more detail on strategic direction. Then comes the planned stock market listing of the spun-off TK Accelis Group in October — a milestone that, together with the full third-quarter results underpinning the raised guidance, should keep the restructuring story firmly in focus.