Thyssenkrupp's Hydrogen Pivot and Auto Cuts Test a 51% Rally

Thyssenkrupp shares rose 2.0% to EUR 14.10 as investors weigh steel mid-term targets against hydrogen and nucera setbacks.

Thyssenkrupp closed Friday's session at EUR 14.10, up 2.0% on the day, extending a year-to-date advance of 51%. The gain offers a calm surface, but the industrial group's real examination is only beginning: management must now prove that a set of ambitious mid-term targets can survive contact with operational reality.

Steel Targets and a Hydrogen Workaround

At the center of the debate sits the steel division, which laid out its mid-term ambitions at a Capital Market Day. The unit is targeting an adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR 1.2 billion, a corresponding margin of at least 11%, and positive free cash flow. More than EUR 800 million of the planned earnings improvement is to come from internal measures. For the current fiscal year 2025/26, thyssenkrupp Steel expects adjusted EBITDA of around EUR 400 million.

According to Reuters, the company is in talks to adjust state funding for its planned direct reduction plant in Duisburg so that the facility can initially run without hydrogen. The project carries a total volume of EUR 3 billion, with roughly two-thirds reportedly coming from the federal government and the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. That workaround lays bare how large the operational and infrastructure hurdles remain on the road to climate-neutral production.

nucera Wins China Order as SOEC Costs Bite

On the plant-engineering side, thyssenkrupp nucera secured a contract last Tuesday from Hongniu Lanzhou Environmental Protection Technology for a chlor-alkali facility in China, booked in the low double-digit million-euro range. The scope covers licensing, engineering, procurement services, key components, and commissioning support.

The order lands alongside a heavier burden at the hydrogen subsidiary. In August, nucera revised its forecast for fiscal year 2025/26 to an EBIT loss of EUR 105 million to EUR 75 million, of which around EUR 30 million stems from a one-off charge in the fourth quarter tied to the strategic repositioning of high-temperature electrolysis (SOEC).

Automotive Trims Engineering Ranks

A day after the nucera order, cuts emerged in the auto business. Thyssenkrupp Automotive Technology plans to shed 160 to 180 positions, mainly in development and engineering, at its Essen and Ennepetal sites. Shock absorber production in Ennepetal will continue unchanged. The newly formed structure of the chassis business is scheduled to launch on January 1, 2027.

On the ownership side, a voting rights notification showed that Norges Bank reached or crossed a reportable threshold on September 25, 2026.

Analysts Split on the Turnaround

The plans drew divergent responses on the market. Deutsche Bank Research rated Thyssenkrupp "Buy" with a price target of EUR 18 on September 29, while JPMorgan kept its "Neutral" stance with a EUR 15 target on September 28.

The US bank noted that the steel unit's mid-term EBITDA goal of EUR 1.2 billion sits well above its prior estimate of EUR 0.4 billion for fiscal 2026. That gap captures the dilemma facing investors, who are caught between hope for a successful realignment and respect for the considerable risks.

Thyssenkrupp stands at a critical crossroads. The return and savings targets are set, and the will to restructure runs across the divisions. Whether the announced steps take hold without external setbacks derailing the effort will be settled in the coming quarters.