Thyssenkrupp's Green Steel Hinges on Hydrogen Tender as Duisburg Start Slips to 2029

Thyssenkrupp Steel has cleared a procedural hurdle for its flagship decarbonisation project, but the economics that will ultimately decide the venture's fate remain unsettled. On 30 October, the company confirmed that the amended funding decision for tkH2Steel has become legally binding. The revision was prompted by higher hydrogen costs and a hydrogen market that, by the company's own account, is expanding more slowly than anticipated. A fresh hydrogen tender is now being prepared.

The binding funding notice keeps the project on track in regulatory terms. What it does not do is make the energy input cheaper. Green hydrogen, Thyssenkrupp Steel said in October, is significantly more expensive than originally assumed and is not yet available at competitive terms — a warning that sits at the heart of the investment case. The stock reflected the mood, posting a daily move of -2.1% yesterday.

A Tender That Must Deliver on Price

Attention now shifts to the planned tender, which the company said in October would launch shortly. Its mere preparation offers a starting point; concrete progress on terms would carry far more weight. For shareholders, the question is whether the auction can narrow the gap between current cost levels and an economically viable supply of hydrogen.

The longer project timeline could work in the company's favour — but only if the extra time is used to deliver a more robust implementation. That benefit is tied to tangible advances, not to procedure alone.

Self-Help Targets Set the Bar

Running alongside the hydrogen question is an internal improvement programme. More than €800 million in earnings contribution is to come from the company's own measures, alongside a target of positive free cash flow. That combination — earnings ambition, profitability and cash generation — provides a clear yardstick. A positive free cash flow, achieved in tandem with the planned changes, would be a strong signal.

Execution on the shop floor is what counts. The mid-term targets gain weight if self-help measures can absorb the strains of the restructuring.

Duisburg Slips Two Years

The technical side of the equation has also shifted. The Duisburg direct-reduction plant, confirmed in November as delayed, is now scheduled to start in 2029 rather than 2027, according to Handelsblatt. Thyssenkrupp attributed the postponement to the engineering phase. The risk profile therefore spans both procurement and technical delivery.

Both strands need to move forward for a more convincing overall picture. Cheaper hydrogen offers would not replace the engineering work, and technical progress would still have to align with viable procurement costs. If either remains difficult, a cautious assessment of the transformation project stays justified.

December 8 as the Next Reckoning

The next scheduled checkpoint is 8 December, when Thyssenkrupp plans to publish its 2025/2026 annual report alongside a balance-sheet press conference and a telephone conference with analysts and investors. Statements on earnings power, cash flow and the pace of the restructuring will be the focus.

Until hydrogen costs stop constraining the project's viability, restraint on any rapid re-rating is understandable. Should procurement prospects improve and execution become more robust, the assessment of the transformation's upside could brighten. The measure remains whether funding, hydrogen supply and technical delivery can come together into a viable whole.