Thyssenkrupp's Forecast Lift Sets Off a Fresh Wave of Analyst Cheers
Published on 08/25/2026 at 13:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of Thyssenkrupp's turnaround is getting more favourable by the week. The industrial conglomerate has narrowed the bottom end of its full-year profit guidance, and the Street is responding with a cascade of price-target hikes that have pushed the shares to within striking distance of a 52-week high.
The company now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of €600 million to €900 million for the current fiscal year, up from a prior range of €500 million to €900 million. Management also tightened its expected group net loss to between €400 million and €700 million, while guiding for revenue to decline by 1% to 3%.
The revision rests on third-quarter numbers released on 13 August, which showed revenue climbing to €8.8 billion and adjusted EBIT improving to €183 million. Net income for the quarter came in at €34 million, though the cumulative nine-month picture remains in the red — a loss of €311 million on revenue of €24.4 billion, with adjusted EBIT of €591 million for the period.
Steel and Marine Lead the Charge
The quarterly improvement traces back to the group's ongoing restructuring, with positive contributions from Steel Europe, Marine Systems and Materials Services. Bloomberg echoed that assessment, pointing to strength in the steel and marine divisions as the principal drivers. The shares responded with a sharp gain on the day of the release.
Reuters, meanwhile, reported that Thyssenkrupp is in talks with Brussels over financing for its planned €3 billion green steel plant in Duisburg — a project viewed as central to decarbonising the steel division. The news agency explicitly cited the upgraded annual guidance as a catalyst for the stock's move.
A Parade of Price-Target Hikes
The analyst community has been quick to reward the momentum. Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi lifted his price target to €20 last Friday while reaffirming a buy rating — the latest in a string of upgrades that have fuelled the rally for weeks. The day before, DZ Bank moved its rating from hold to buy, raising its target from €11 to €16. Bank of America had already made its move on 20 August, bumping its target from €19 to €22 and keeping a buy recommendation.
A Deutsche Bank call from July — a €16 target with a buy rating — now looks conservative by comparison, though it predates the latest numbers. The pattern across the Street is consistent: the operating story keeps beating expectations, and the houses are scrambling to keep up.
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Spin-Off Mechanics Take Shape
Beyond the earnings trajectory, the strategic overhaul is advancing on schedule. An extraordinary general meeting on 7 August approved the spin-off of the tk accelis division. Shareholders will receive one share in the new entity for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they hold. The business brings roughly 15,500 employees across more than 400 locations and generated around €11.4 billion in revenue. Registration in the commercial register is expected by the end of August, with legal effectiveness slated for late October.
Not Everything Is Going to Plan
The water treatment and hydrogen subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Nucera has been a drag. On 11 August, the company announced its exit from SOEC mass production, a decision that will carve roughly €30 million out of fourth-quarter EBIT through write-downs on the pilot plant and development costs. Nucera also cut its 2026 EBIT guidance to a loss of €75 million to €105 million, down from a prior range of €30 million to €80 million, and trimmed both its revenue and order-intake targets.
China Provides a Counterweight
External forces are lending support as well. Beijing announced fresh stimulus measures on Friday following weak July economic data, a development that Bloomberg noted is benefiting commodity and steel stocks. The shares closed Monday at €13.63, up 1.5% on the day and just 3.0% below the 52-week high of €14.05 marked on 17 August. The stock has gained 46% since the start of the year.
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That run has brought heightened sensitivity to swings — the annualised 30-day volatility stands at 42%, a reminder that this remains a bumpy ride. For investors, the combination of improving earnings quality, a tightening loss range and the steady progress of the steel division's transformation forms the core of the bull case. Whether the Brussels talks on the Duisburg green steel plant conclude favourably could well determine if the upward trajectory holds through the rest of the year.
