Thyssenkrupp's Elevator Exit Could Hand It €3.4bn — and a Fresh Chapter in Its Re-Rating

Thyssenkrupp shares surge 57% YTD; Kone takeover of TK Elevator could bring €3.4B cash and shares, boosting the conglomerate's re-rating story.

The arithmetic is becoming hard to ignore. Thyssenkrupp's residual 16.2 percent stake in TK Elevator, the lift business it sold off years ago, could now convert into as much as €3.4 billion in cash and shares if Finnish suitor Kone completes its takeover. The deal values TK Elevator, including debt, at roughly €29.4 billion — and for the Essen-based conglomerate, the payday would land at a moment when the equity story is already shifting in its favour.

Shares closed Friday at €14.67, a modest 1.2 percent pullback on the day but still within 3.4 percent of the 52-week high. The stock has climbed 9.2 percent in just seven trading sessions and is up a staggering 57 percent since the start of the year, leaving the market capitalisation at €9.18 billion.

A Rally With Multiple Engines

The recent acceleration traces back to a cluster of analyst upgrades in mid-August. Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi lifted his price target to €20 with a Buy rating, arguing that the company is rich in catalysts and financial firepower while its valuation still lags peers. A day earlier, Bank of America raised its target from €19 to €22, keeping a Buy stance, while the DZ Bank executed a full reversal, upgrading from Hold to Buy and lifting its target from €11 to €16.

That wave of revisions wasn't built on speculation alone. Two weeks ago, Thyssenkrupp reported third-quarter results for fiscal 2025/2026 that beat expectations: adjusted EBIT rose 18 percent to €183 million, with revenue up 8 percent. Management also raised its full-year guidance, lifting the floor for adjusted EBIT from €500 million to €600 million and narrowing the upper bound of the potential group loss from €800 million to €700 million. Since that guidance upgrade, the stock has added 10 percent.

The Elevator Optionality Finally Crystallises

The Kone transaction represents the culmination of a portfolio strategy that has been years in the making. Thyssenkrupp had already banked substantial proceeds from the original disposal of TK Elevator, keeping the 16.2 percent stake as a form of deferred upside. If the takeover closes, that option value becomes tangible — delivered as a blend of cash and Kone shares.

For CEO Miguel Ángel López Borrego and CFO Axel Hamann, the timing is fortuitous. The group paused talks in May about bringing in third-party investors to the steel division, citing improved market conditions and significant value-creation potential within the unit. A multi-billion-euro infusion from the elevator stake, combined with a steel business developing on its own terms, gives management strategic breathing room that few would have predicted a year ago.

Setbacks That Didn't Bite

Not everything has gone smoothly. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the group's electrolyser subsidiary, announced its exit from series production of SOEC electrolyser stacks roughly two weeks ago. The unit subsequently worsened its loss forecast for the current fiscal year to between minus €105 million and minus €75 million, and expects a one-off charge of around €30 million in the fourth quarter.

The market shrugged. Since that announcement, the parent company's shares have risen 6.3 percent — a sign that investors are focusing on the bigger picture rather than the noise from a single subsidiary.

A Leaner Structure, a Clearer Story

The conglomerate discount that once haunted Thyssenkrupp has been steadily eroded. Last October's IPO of naval subsidiary TKMS, which distributed 49 percent of shares to existing shareholders, and the more recent spin-off of TK Accelis have sharpened the portfolio. Analysts now appear more confident assigning a clean valuation to what remains.

With price targets ranging from €16 to €22 across the three houses that recently weighed in, the consensus view is that the rally still has room to run — even if the past weeks have already front-loaded a meaningful portion of the re-rating. The Kone deal, pending regulatory approvals and the transaction's final terms, would add yet another layer to a story that has transformed from turnaround tale to re-rating candidate in a matter of months.