Thyssenkrupp's Breakup Bet: Analysts Pile In as Materials Spin-Off Nears the Tape
Published on 08/26/2026 at 13:13 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The transformation of Thyssenkrupp from industrial conglomerate into a leaner holding company is entering its most consequential phase, with the planned October listing of its materials trading arm, tk accelis, set to test investor appetite for the group's new structure. Shareholder backing for the separation was emphatic — 99.99 percent of votes cast at the annual meeting cleared the path — and the Essen-based group intends to retain a majority stake in the newly listed entity as it pushes ahead with its financial-holding strategy.
That vote of confidence has been echoed across the sell-side in recent weeks. The DZ Bank lifted its rating on the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" on Friday, more than doubling its price target from €11.00 to €16.00. The upgrade landed just a day after BofA Securities raised its own target from €19.00 to €22.00, keeping a buy recommendation in place. Both moves came despite a third-quarter earnings miss that left the shares trading in a curious spot: at Tuesday's close of €13.74, the stock was up 1.1 percent on the day and sat just 2.2 percent below its 52-week high, having gained 47 percent since the start of the year.
The disconnect between soft operational numbers and a buoyant share price is not lost on market participants. Thyssenkrupp reported adjusted EBIT of €183 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2025/2026, an 18.1 percent improvement year-on-year but shy of the €207 million consensus. Revenue climbed 8 percent to €8.8 billion, while free cash flow before M&A remained in negative territory at minus €114 million. Management nonetheless raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance from €500 million to €600 million, leaving the upper bound unchanged at €900 million.
A one-off gain helped flatter the headline numbers: the sale of the stake in steel joint venture Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann to Salzgitter contributed a book profit of €131 million in the quarter. The exit from HKM is itself part of the broader restructuring narrative that analysts are increasingly willing to underwrite. BofA's revised target is premised on EBITDA potential of €1.25 billion to €1.5 billion in the steel division, provided the restructuring and the HKM disposal proceed as planned. The bank also pointed to improved steel-margin prospects from new EU tariff quotas and the planned separation of the Materials Services unit as reasons for optimism despite the operational shortfall.
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Citigroup's Ephrem Ravi had already weighed in on August 21, lifting his price target to €20.00 and citing the company's solid capitalisation and positive momentum in the China business. The more cautious camp includes Berenberg, which kept a "Hold" rating on hydrogen subsidiary Thyssenkrupp Nucera with a €9.00 target, flagging persistent uncertainty around order intake for electrolysis plants. Nucera's third-quarter numbers did little to dispel that caution: revenue of €145 million, a negative EBIT of €2 million and net income of zero.
The contrast with the naval arm could hardly be starker. TKMS, in which Thyssenkrupp retains a 51 percent stake, lifted its full-year revenue guidance on August 12 from 2 to 5 percent growth to 10 to 12 percent, with adjusted EBIT margin of up to 6.5 percent. The company cited heightened demand in the defence sector as the driver. TKMS was spun off via an IPO in October 2025 and joined the MDAX in December; a lock-up period on Thyssenkrupp's remaining shares in the former subsidiary expires in October.
On the hydrogen side of the business, the Duisburg direct-reduction plant for water-based steelmaking is progressing on schedule, though Thyssenkrupp has been careful to caveat that the facility's economics will hinge on future energy prices — a reminder that the green transformation carries a long-term cost question that has yet to be answered.
Investors have two key dates on the horizon. A capital markets day for the Steel Europe division is slated for late September, where management is expected to flesh out the strategy for making the steel business self-standing. The full-year results for fiscal 2025/2026 follow on November 24. Further upside speculation centres on the April agreement under which Finnish elevator maker Kone would acquire TK Elevator; should regulatory approval come through, Thyssenkrupp's indirect stake of roughly 16 percent could generate a substantial liquidity windfall, though market participants caution that confirmation remains pending.
For now, the market appears willing to look through the quarterly noise and price in the sum-of-the-parts story. The question is whether the October listing of tk accelis delivers on that promise — or exposes the gap between strategic narrative and operational reality.
