Thyssenkrupp: Goldman Trims Its Stake, Two Brokers Trim Their Targets, and the Steel Question Still Waits

Goldman Sachs has disclosed a reduced aggregate position in Thyssenkrupp, taking it to 4.25% from 5.08%. The filing lands alongside a pair of softer price targets from German brokers and a strategic pivot in steel — three signals that point in different directions and deserve to be read separately rather than blended into a single verdict.

The Goldman disclosure covers voting rights held through shares as well as positions built via instruments. Its decline therefore cannot be read straightforwardly as an equivalent sale of directly held stock, and the mandatory notification offers neither a rationale for the change nor a view on the group's prospects. Directional confirmation is equally hard to extract: Morgan Stanley reported on 30 October that its own aggregate position had risen to 7.96% from 7.46%. Two institutions, two opposite moves — no unified signal.

Two marks lowered, two buy ratings intact

On the valuation side, LBBW cut its price target for Thyssenkrupp to EUR 18 from EUR 19 yesterday while keeping its "Buy" rating, according to media reports. The move follows the DZ Bank, which on 29 October trimmed its fair value to EUR 15 from EUR 16, also without touching its "Buy" call.

Both houses have pulled back their valuation marks, not their recommendations. Reading a lower target as a sell signal would misrepresent what the two analysts actually did. With the stock at EUR 12.86, both marks sit above the market price — which is precisely the context in which the retained buy ratings should be understood. Targets are analyst estimates, not promised future prices.

The share price itself needs a mechanical caveat. The spin-off of tk accelis, completed just over a week ago, came with a sharp downward move in the Thyssenkrupp stock that coverage attributed to the optical effect of the separation. That move was adjustment-driven and did not represent an equivalent loss of economic value — and, by the same token, it offers no evidence of operational improvement either. A split-adjusted reading of the chart and an assessment of the business remain two distinct exercises.

Steel: a spin-off in preparation, not a sale

The more consequential test is how the steel division will be positioned. Chief executive Miguel López told Reuters on 28 October that a sale was off the table for now; after talks with partners came to nothing, the unit is being prepared for a possible spin-off as the next step.

That sets a strategic direction without delivering a completed separation. Investors should treat the spin-off as an option rather than a realised contribution to value — the ruled-out sale and the failed partner talks show the restructuring does not offer unlimited immediately available routes.

As an organisational reference point, Thyssenkrupp retains a 51% majority stake in tk accelis following the carve-out. The materials subsidiary has set a medium-term target of a 4–5% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Hydrogen: a binding subsidy, a tender still to come

On the decarbonisation front, the amendment notice for funding of the tkH2Steel project has become legally binding. Thyssenkrupp Steel is preparing a new hydrogen tender and is aligning the ramp-up of its direct reduction plant more flexibly with the availability and cost of hydrogen. According to company statements, the hydrogen share is to rise step by step, contingent on availability and economic viability.

That flexibility could tie implementation more closely to actual procurement conditions — an advantage if it produces a workable ramp-up. The binding notice creates a foundation, though it is not proof of later commercial success. And flexibility does not remove the underlying variables: hydrogen availability and cost remain decisive for the economics either way.

Cost pressure is building from another quarter. On 27 October, IG Metall agreed a demand recommendation of 5% higher wages and salaries for the northwest German steel industry, a bargaining region that includes Thyssenkrupp Steel. The recommendation is not a collective agreement, so it describes a possible cost burden rather than a fixed additional expense — a distinction that matters when modelling future earnings.

The December date that matters

So long as Thyssenkrupp pushes the steel restructuring forward in a commercially plausible way, the Goldman reduction is likely to be secondary for the medium-term picture. Should hydrogen costs or availability hamper implementation, the strategic outlook would come under more pressure — and a spin-off alone could not offset such strains.

The next hard checkpoint is the 2025/2026 annual report, announced for 8 December 2026, with the annual press conference and an analyst and investor conference scheduled for the same day. What the numbers and commentary reveal about the economic substance behind the restructuring will be the measure that counts. Today's stake disclosure is a prompt to revisit one's own assumptions; the sturdier yardstick is whether Thyssenkrupp can turn its strategic options into a convincing operating story.