Thyssenkrupp: Goldman's Equity Stake Rises Even as Two Brokers Trim Their Fair Values

Goldman Sachs has trimmed its overall reported position in Thyssenkrupp, but the headline number masks a shift in the opposite direction. According to a voting-rights notification published today, the US bank's aggregate holding fell to 4.25% from 5.08% — yet its voting rights held directly through shares climbed to 1.01% from 0.88%.

The disclosure traces back to a threshold being crossed on 29 October, meaning the publication date and the underlying change are separated in time. The entire decline is accounted for by financial instruments, which dropped to 3.24% from 4.21%. That distinction matters: the smaller total is not evidence of a broad retreat across every reported category, nor does it say anything about Thyssenkrupp's operating performance. No revised earnings forecast or fresh verdict on the steel business follows from the altered position structure alone.

Two Targets Cut, Two Buy Ratings Held

On the analyst side, the tone has been more cautious on valuation without turning negative on the stock. LBBW lowered its price target for Thyssenkrupp to EUR 18 from EUR 19 yesterday while reaffirming its "Buy" rating, according to media reports. The move follows a similar call from DZ Bank, which on 29 October cut its fair value to EUR 15 from EUR 16 and likewise kept its "Buy" recommendation.

Both houses have pulled back their valuation marks, not their investment verdicts. Reading a lower target as a sell signal would misrepresent what the two actions actually say. With the shares currently trading at EUR 12.86, both targets sit above the market price — which puts the retained buy calls in perspective, though targets are analyst estimates rather than promised future levels.

The tk accelis Spin-Off Skews the Chart

Any reading of the share-price trajectory also has to account for the spin-off of tk accelis. The unit's market debut just over a week ago coincided with a sharp downward move in Thyssenkrupp stock, which coverage characterised as an optical effect of the separation. The parent's price action therefore cannot be assessed without that context.

Wage Demand Meets a Slower Hydrogen Ramp-Up

Beyond the broker notes, the wage round deserves attention. On 27 October, IG Metall agreed a demand recommendation of 5% more pay for the northwest German steel industry, a bargaining region that includes Thyssenkrupp Steel. The recommendation is not a collective agreement — for investors it describes a potential cost burden, not a fixed additional expense. That gap between demand and settled deal is especially important when assessing future earnings.

Economic conditions also remain central to the tkH2Steel decarbonisation project. The amended funding terms now allow a more gradual introduction of hydrogen and a longer reliance on natural gas, reflecting the slower hydrogen ramp-up and higher costs. According to the company, running on natural gas alone should already cut CO? emissions by more than 50% compared with existing coal-based blast furnace production. Construction is under way, and a new tender for a long-term hydrogen supply contract is planned shortly. Full hydrogen operation remains the goal, with the hydrogen share set to rise step by step depending on availability and commercial viability.

For investors, the two levels are best kept apart: Goldman Sachs is reporting a changed position structure, while Thyssenkrupp is adapting its steel transformation to a slower hydrogen build-out — with wage costs and the economics of hydrogen use as the concrete yardsticks against which the analysts' buy calls can be measured.