Thyssenkrupp: Chinese Electrical Steel Pressure in Gelsenkirchen Meets a Shareholder Open to a Steel Split

Thyssenkrupp's steel business is being squeezed on two fronts at once — by Chinese imports of grain-oriented electrical steel and by the unresolved question of how the conglomerate should be broken up. The two storylines converged this week, with Handelsblatt reporting competitive pressure on a specific product line while the Krupp Foundation signalled it would not stand in the way of a separation of the steel division.

A Product-Level Problem, Not a Sector Abstraction

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe turns out the affected material at Gelsenkirchen and Isbergues, giving the import debate a concrete address inside the company rather than the feel of a generic industry talking point. Handelsblatt's Thursday report also flagged possible side effects from EU protective measures — a reminder that trade defence is not a one-way bet for the German producer.

That distinction matters for anyone trying to read the equity. Expected steel price increases are one input; the competitive conditions attached to each individual product are another. The electrical steel report offers a specific angle on the latter but stops well short of documenting any earnings impact that has already landed.

JPMorgan Lifts Its Target, Keeps Its Distance

JPMorgan raised its price target on Thyssenkrupp to EUR 17 from EUR 15 on 15 October, while leaving its rating at "Neutral." The higher marker, in other words, came with no upgrade attached.

Analyst Dominic O'Kane framed his sector view around limited room for positive earnings surprises in the upcoming quarterly reports from European steelmakers. He pointed at the same time to anticipated steel price increases and an expected acceleration in profit through 2027. That forecast and the electrical steel reporting pull in different directions: the analyst case leans on prices and sector-wide earnings momentum, while the Gelsenkirchen story shows why such expectations cannot be applied uniformly across every product line. The profit acceleration remains a projection, not a reported figure.

The Owner Blinks — Carefully

On the structural side, the Krupp Foundation has said it is fundamentally open to a spin-off of the steel division, though it has not committed to any particular transaction format. Media reports have floated a partial IPO or a partial sale as the two live options — a listing of steel shares in the first case, a disposal in the second. Neither amounts to Thyssenkrupp exiting steel altogether.

The word "fundamentally" carries the weight here. The foundation's goodwill is a signal from the ownership side, not blanket backing for every conceivable structure, and it does not pick a lane between the two routes. A partial IPO and a partial sale are alternatives, not interchangeable labels for the same event. Investors should read the message as openness to a reshuffle, not an announcement that one is coming.

tk accelis Shows How Far a Carve-Out Can Go

For a sense of what an advanced separation looks like, the pending listing of materials trading subsidiary tk accelis is the reference point. Its first day of trading in the Prime Standard of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is scheduled for 28 October 2026, and BaFin has approved the securities prospectus.

The ownership mechanics are spelled out: shareholders receive one tk accelis share for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares, and Thyssenkrupp retains 51% — a majority stake — in the subsidiary. None of this transfers to the steel division. Neither the allocation ratio nor the retained holding at tk accelis can be read across to a possible steel transaction, which has to be assessed on its own terms.

Two Clocks Running at Different Speeds

What investors face, then, is a dated capital-markets step in materials trading sitting alongside a much vaguer expression of owner support for reshaping steel. The foundation's stance makes the steel discussion easier to have; it does not pre-empt its design. Nor does the tk accelis listing answer the question of where the steel business goes — there, the anticipated price tailwinds still have to prove themselves against the import competition coming out of China.

Thyssenkrupp has pencilled in 8 December for publication of its 2025/2026 annual report, the next scheduled checkpoint for the group's reporting.