Thyssenkrupp: A Steel Spinoff in the Making, a Hydrogen Tender Still to Be Awarded, and Two Buy Ratings With Lower Targets

Thyssenkrupp has set its steel division on the path toward a possible spinoff, adding a structural storyline that investors must now weigh against a separate operational one: the hydrogen ramp-up at its steel unit. The two tracks are related but distinct, and neither is finished.

Chief executive Miguel López told Reuters on 28 October that a sale of the steel business is off the table for now, following failed attempts to find partners. Preparing a spinoff opens a different route, though it remains a preparatory step rather than a completed separation. The distinction matters because the announcement alone says nothing about the economics of the move — only that progress on the restructuring will now be measured by how the steel plan takes shape, not by the sheer number of organizational changes.

What the tk accelis carve-out does and does not tell us

A useful reference point is the carve-out of tk accelis, completed just over a week ago, in which Thyssenkrupp retained a 51% majority stake. That transaction shows a spinoff need not mean a full exit from a business. It does not, however, mean the steel division will be structured the same way. For shareholders, the label "spinoff" matters less than the concrete structure, and only further detail on that front would allow the planned step to be assessed economically. Until then, the preparation is a strategic intention, not a realized contribution to value.

The bull case would be a steel restructuring with a comprehensible design, while other group businesses win operational contracts. One such order arrived on Thursday: CF Industries commissioned thyssenkrupp Uhde to carry out a FEED study for a planned urea solution processing plant in Courtright, Ontario, Canada. That is genuine operational progress, but it concerns a study and should not be conflated with a contract to build the plant. It counts as a standalone piece of business news alongside the structural themes — not as proof that those themes will succeed.

Analysts stay constructive, but at lower marks

The latest analyst moves carry a positive tone even as the numbers come down. Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target to EUR 17 from EUR 18 on Thursday while reaffirming its buy recommendation, with analyst Bastian Synagowitz attributing the adjustment to the completed tk accelis spinoff. The revision therefore did not come with a downgrade. DZ Bank also lowered its fair value to EUR 15 from EUR 16 on Thursday, keeping its rating at "Buy." Both houses paired their positive verdicts with reduced valuation marks — not a shared rationale for the changes, but a reminder that buy ratings alone do not eliminate risk.

The hydrogen file: a binding decree, an open tender

On the operational side, the amended funding decision for the tkH2Steel decarbonization project became legally binding on Friday. Thyssenkrupp Steel is preparing a new hydrogen tender. That gives the project a firm funding basis, but it does not by itself settle whether using hydrogen will pay off. The shares rose 2.5% today, a move that cannot be readily attributed to the funding decision; for an investment case, what follows from the new tender matters more.

Thyssenkrupp Steel intends to align its hydrogen ramp-up explicitly with availability and economic viability, and that is precisely the test. The planned tender is more than a procurement step: its results could show under what conditions the intended scale-up can be delivered economically. A prepared tender is not a signed supply contract, and a binding funding decision does not replace one either. Anyone treating the two as equivalent would overstate where the project actually stands.

Where the bear case bites

The serious counterargument starts with the backdrop to the steel plans. According to López, a sale is ruled out for now after partnership attempts failed, so the spinoff preparation does not follow a successful sales process — investors should not automatically read it as the economically superior solution. In the unfavorable scenario, the steel spinoff remains a preparatory theme for a long time, and operating performance would have to carry more of the load while the expected benefit of further structural measures stays impossible to pin down. The Uhde study order would be a single building block in that picture, not a comprehensive rebuttal.

The same applies to hydrogen. Should availability or economics constrain the ramp-up, practical implementation could fall short of expectations; the binding funding framework would persist but would not answer all of the project's economic questions. The open execution of the strategic overhaul compounds this: preparing a possible steel spinoff is not the same as an agreed transaction.

The 8 December checkpoint

The next concrete date is 8 December 2026, when Thyssenkrupp has said it will publish its annual report for fiscal 2025/2026, alongside its annual press conference and an analyst and investor conference. That gives an opportunity to assess the group's economic development and statements on the restructuring together.

Until then, the key question is which announcements actually create new binding commitments. A legally binding funding decision, an economically viable supply contract and a possible spinoff are each separate steps, and their effects should be judged separately. A study contract evidences business activity; a spinoff changes the group structure. Whether the two combine into a more convincing overall picture has to be shown by results, not by intent.