The $211.77 Question Hanging Over Nebius's Earnings

Michael Burry's short bet on Nebius hinges on GPU depreciation concerns. Q2 results due Aug 12; stock down 37% from peak but up 121% YTD.

When Michael Burry calls a trade "fish in a barrel," markets tend to listen. The investor famed for betting against subprime mortgages has trained his sights on Nebius Group, the Nasdaq-listed AI infrastructure provider, and the timing could hardly be more pointed: the company reports second-quarter results before the bell on Wednesday, August 12.

Burry disclosed his short position on August 6, having sold the stock at $211.77. The news alone knocked roughly 10 percent off the share price that day, following a July in which the stock had already tumbled 31.1 percent. By Friday's close, Nebius shares had slipped another 1.49 percent to €162.56, leaving the stock roughly 37.72 percent below its June peak. Even after that slide, the equity still trades up about 121.17 percent year to date — a reminder of just how far the AI infrastructure rally had carried it.

A Dispute Over Depreciation Lies at the Heart of Burry's Bet

Burry's thesis is not a rejection of AI demand. It is an accounting argument. He contends that AI infrastructure players are inflating their earnings by depreciating their graphics processing units too slowly. In the case of Oracle — which he also shorted at $144.63 — he estimates profits could be overstated by 26 to 27 percent by 2028. Nebius, in his view, runs the same playbook: borrow heavily, buy GPUs, and let the boom outpace the bill.

The company's first-quarter numbers illustrate both the promise and the peril of that model. Revenue surged 684 percent to $399 million, up from just $50 million a year earlier, with the core AI infrastructure business growing 841 percent to $390 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a profit of $129.5 million at a 32 percent margin. Yet the bottom line still showed a net loss of $100.3 million.

The capital requirements are staggering. Nebius spent $2.5 billion on GPUs in the first quarter alone and raised $6.3 billion in fresh funding during the period, including a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, which holds roughly 9 percent of the company. Cash reserves stood at $9.3 billion at quarter-end, supplemented by another $775 million in debt raised in July. For the full year, management has lifted its capex guidance to $20–25 billion, up from a prior range of $16–20 billion, while projecting revenue of $3.0–3.4 billion.

Growth Ambitions Meet a Steep Valuation

Nebius has also raised its capacity forecast from 1 gigawatt to over 4 gigawatts, underpinned by a five-year contract with Meta that could be worth up to $27 billion. That deal, alongside the Nvidia stake, gives the company strategic ballast that could weigh more heavily than near-term quarterly noise.

The valuation, however, invites scrutiny. On expected 2026 revenue, the stock trades at roughly 14 times sales, against a sector average of 3.3 times. Based on trailing twelve-month revenue, that multiple balloons to around 55. For a company still burning cash, the gap between narrative and numbers is wide.

Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $578 million and a loss of $0.52 per share. The reaction on Wednesday will likely be sharp in either direction. Confirmation of the raised capacity and revenue guidance could blunt Burry's argument; a wider-than-expected loss would pour fuel on the debate over whether AI infrastructure valuations have run ahead of fundamentals.

A Sector Split Between Speculation and Substance

Nebius is not the only name testing investors' nerves. SoftBank reported a quarterly net profit of ¥347.3 billion (roughly $2.2 billion) that beat analyst expectations, but the figure was almost entirely attributable to a ¥1.3 trillion book gain on its Intel stake, built for about $2 billion last year. OpenAI contributed nothing to the quarter, and the AI computing segment — home to Arm, Graphcore, and Ampere — saw its loss grow to more than six times the year-ago level. The stock fell 6.1 percent in Tokyo on Friday, though it still closed the week up 8.36 percent at €29.80, about a third below its June record high.

Elsewhere, POET Technologies gained 4.90 percent on Friday and 27.06 percent on the week to €7.70, buoyed by reports that the US government, via the FCC, is preparing an import ban on Chinese optical transceivers — components critical to AI data centers. The company also added two new board members, Bardia Pezeshki and Jean F. Rankin, though its fundamentals remain speculative: revenue runs at roughly $1.07 million, EBITDA is deeply negative, and the balance sheet shows about $429 million in cash against minimal debt.

UBS, by contrast, is wrestling with a $20 million fine from FINRA over anti-money-laundering violations, a regulatory setback that complicates its Credit Suisse integration. The bank is simultaneously pushing into US wealth management, having secured an OCC license to serve clients with $2–10 million in assets, a pool it estimates at 700,000 households. The stock closed Friday at €46.48, up 1.44 percent on the day and 16.87 percent year to date, within 3.5 percent of its 52-week high. Analyst sentiment is divided: seven buys, three holds, and two sells, with an average price target near €53.52. BNP Paribas Exane recently downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.

Main Capital, meanwhile, delivered one of the sector's strongest prints. Second-quarter investment income came in at $149.6 million, beating expectations by 2.7 percent, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.04 topped consensus by 8.7 percent. Net asset value per share hit a record $33.92, helped by a $46 million gain on the exit from Centre Technologies. The company declared total dividends of $1.08 per share, including a $0.30 special payment, and raised its regular dividend by 3.9 percent. It guided to net investment income of at least $0.97 per share for the third quarter. The stock rose 3.24 percent on Friday to €51.00, up 7.59 percent on the week, with a dividend yield around 5.56 percent.

The Verdict Awaits Wednesday

For Nebius, the coming days will test whether Burry's skepticism or the company's growth story prevails. The short seller's position is public, the expectations are elevated, and the numbers will speak for themselves. If the company confirms its upgraded guidance, the bear case loses some of its edge. If losses come in wider than forecast, the broader question of how long AI infrastructure can outrun its financing costs will only grow louder.