Tempus AI Lifts Revenue Outlook After 23% Quarterly Growth, but Profit Guidance Stays Put

Tempus AI gave investors a stronger top-line signal on Monday, raising its full-year revenue forecast after a blowout third quarter — yet the company pointedly declined to lift its profit target, and the stock still jumped 11% to €70.10.

Revenue up, earnings outlook unchanged

For the current year, the Chicago-based diagnostics and data firm now expects revenue of $1.60–1.605 billion. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains at roughly $65 million. That gap matters: management is projecting more business than before without promising a correspondingly higher adjusted profit, so sales growth and profitability still need to be judged on separate tracks.

The quarter itself showed momentum on both fronts. Revenue climbed 23% to $411.5 million, with the Data & Applications segment outgrowing diagnostics. Data & Applications brought in $108.1 million, up 33%, while diagnostics revenue rose 20%.

Test demand was broad-based. Oncology test volume increased 32%, and MRD testing reached about 12,000 assays — a 300% surge from the year-earlier quarter.

Bottom line improves, but losses persist

Higher revenue translated into a marked earnings improvement. Net loss narrowed to $14.9 million from $80.0 million a year earlier, though Tempus remained in the red on a net basis. Adjusted EBITDA told a rosier story, rising to $25.6 million from $1.5 million. The company ended the quarter with $854.4 million in cash and securities.

Data deals and a pending acquisition frame the outlook

Beyond operations, data licensing offers additional revenue runway — though multi-year contract values should not be confused with revenue already booked in a given quarter. The BMS oncology data licensing arrangement is worth up to $137.5 million over five years, and a separate agreement with BMS and Pathos covers Alzheimer's and dementia data to the tune of $55 million over five years. Following the BMS collaboration in October, data licensing bookings since the start of the year have topped $550 million.

The planned acquisition of Personalis also has a concrete date attached: regulatory clearance is in hand, and a shareholder vote is scheduled for November 30. No closing has been announced yet.

A European regulatory win and a raised analyst target

The company also disclosed on October 26 that its xR test for profiling solid tumors received EU IVDR Class C certification — a stamp the company says supports continued access to the European market beyond 2028. The test uses RNA sequencing to profile solid tumors.

That same day, H.C. Wainwright lifted its price target on Tempus AI to $68 from $66, according to media reports, keeping a buy rating and citing the company's expanded data agreements.

The contracts disclosed on October 23 carry potential total cash payments of $192.5 million and stretch over roughly five years. Bristol Myers Squibb is set to pay $137.5 million for oncology data and services, with the expanded collaboration covering licensing of multimodal oncology data through 2031 plus access to the Lens platform for cancer research and drug development. Pathos AI is to pay up to $55 million for neurological data and an agent-based analytics tool under a five-year licensing arrangement.

The certification and contract news arrived against a choppy tape: the stock fell 6.0% on Friday as media reports of worries over the profitability of heavy AI investment weighed on the broader technology sector.

Tempus had flagged ahead of time that it would publish third-quarter 2026 results before the U.S. market open, with the reporting period ending September 30. The numbers delivered the stronger revenue signal the market was looking for. What Tempus has not offered is a higher adjusted full-year profit — and that omission is the one caveat in an otherwise clearly improved quarterly report.