Stifel's $25 Target Meets Goldman's Caution: Almonty's Three-Continent Tungsten Bet Comes Into Focus

Stifel initiated Almonty Industries with a buy rating and $25 target, a day after Goldman Sachs started coverage at neutral with $13.

Almonty Industries found itself at the center of a sharply divided analyst debate this Friday, as Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage of the tungsten producer with a buy rating and a $25.00 price target — a call that stands in stark contrast to the more guarded view taken by Goldman Sachs just one day earlier.

The split verdicts landed against a backdrop of active trading. The stock was quoted at EUR 11.35 in Friday's session, up 4.3%, though a separate reading earlier in the day had the shares at EUR 11.16 for a gain of 2.6%. Since the start of the year, the equity has appreciated 41%.

Two Houses, Two Very Different Pictures

Goldman Sachs kicked off its own coverage on Thursday with a neutral stance and a $13 target, a markedly more conservative assessment. Media reports indicated that investors responded to that initiation with selling, sending the shares down 8.3% during the session. Stifel's $25 projection, unveiled a day later, sketches an entirely different trajectory.

The gap between the two targets underscores how differently observers weigh the company's valuation headroom. Where the more cautious camp sees the current level as largely stretched, Stifel envisions substantial re-rating potential ahead.

Spanish Tailings Deal Anchors Revenue Visibility

Underpinning the bull case are concrete operational advances. On September 17, Almonty signed a multi-year take-or-pay supply agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a subsidiary of the Sandvik group, covering the reprocessing of tailings material at its Spanish Los Santos mine.

The contract covers at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained WO? and includes a conditional advance payment of US$3.0 million. By locking in a firm offtake commitment, the miner shields its Spanish operations from market-side risk while the buyer secures contractual access to tungsten concentrate — a structure that lends the project financial predictability independent of fluctuating commodity prices.

Sangdong Reaches Commercial Production

Roughly a week ago, Almonty also reported the start of commercial tungsten production at Phase I of its Sangdong mine in South Korea. The company obtained the required inspection certificates for its processing and crushing facilities, clearing the way for sales of tungsten concentrate. Since that milestone, the stock has shed 9.2%.

Rwanda Partnership Adds African Dimension

The company's African footprint expanded through an arrangement granting the state a 25% stake in Almonty Rwanda, with the company retaining 75%. In return, Rwanda contributes the Shyorongi exploration concession and a mineral processing license to the partnership. The deal hands authorities their 25% interest while Almonty secures exploration and processing rights.

Supply-Side Pressure Keeps the Spotlight on Alternatives

The broader market environment lends support to the company's positioning. With global supply bottlenecks persisting, securing critical raw materials has taken on growing urgency. Almonty is pursuing the build-out of reliable supply chains for Western buyers, aiming to chip away at the dominance of Asian producers.

Media reports noted that China designated 15 tungsten exporters for 2026, a move that keeps strategic pressure on alternative sourcing routes outside Asia. Against that backdrop, the newly established operational footholds across three continents now form the yardstick against which the widely divergent analyst targets will ultimately be judged.