SpaceX Stock Steadies After First Lock-Up Wave, But September Brings Another Supply Test

SpaceX shares rebound after first insider unlock, but a second 319M-share release and Cursor dilution loom; analysts split on valuation.

The post-IPO honeymoon was always going to be messy, and SpaceX shareholders are living through it in real time. After absorbing the first major unlock of insider shares last week, the stock has found its footing — at least for now. The shares closed Friday at €117.20, up 2.1 percent on the day, a modest rebound that suggests the market is digesting the roughly 319 million newly tradable Class A shares without a full-blown panic.

The picture over a longer horizon is less flattering. The equity remains down 3.1 percent on the week, though it has climbed 16 percent over the past 30 days. That whiplash is characteristic of a stock that briefly dipped below its $135 IPO price on August 20 — the day the first lock-up tranche representing about seven percent of outstanding shares was released — before closing that U.S. session at $131.86.

A Second Supply Wave Looms

The next test arrives September 9, when another staggered release of roughly 319 million insider shares hits the market. That overhang is compounded by a separate dilution event: SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor, which required the issuance of approximately 389 million new Class A shares. The combination of the lock-up expiry and fresh equity from the deal has analysts split on where the stock goes from here.

The valuation debate played out in stark terms on Friday. DZ Bank initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, citing valuation risks tied to the share unlocks. Bernstein's Douglas Harned, by contrast, raised his price target to $248 from $239 and reiterated an Outperform rating, pointing to Starship's reusability as the key long-term value driver.

Institutional investors appear to be voting with their feet — or at least some of them. Tema ETFs, Montanova Capital, and Proficio Capital Partners all built new positions during the second quarter, a signal of continued conviction despite the supply overhang.

Starship Prep Takes Center Stage

Operationally, the company is firing on multiple cylinders. A Falcon 9 launched 29 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on Friday, marking the 75th Starlink mission of the year. That follows the company's 100th launch of 2026, with the Starlink constellation now exceeding 11,000 active satellites. The launch tempo has been record-breaking: two Falcon 9 missions — USSF-366 and Globalstar — lifted off over the weekend in the shortest interval ever recorded between two orbital flights, bringing the year's Falcon 9 tally to 96.

The bigger spectacle, however, is Starship. Preparations for Flight 14, the system's first full orbital attempt, are accelerating. A six-engine static fire test of Ship 41 was completed successfully, and the launch window is now targeted for early to mid-September. CEO Elon Musk has confirmed the vehicle will carry upgraded Starlink satellites on the mission.

Musk also reiterated his ambition to catch the Starship upper stage with the launch tower's mechanical arms — a maneuver never before attempted and still subject to regulatory approval. Should it succeed, it would mark a major milestone toward full reusability. A reflight of a recovered Starship stage is penciled in for late 2026 or early 2027, and Musk expects the system to eventually launch at least once daily within a year.

The Financial Picture: Stronger, But Still in the Red

The company's first quarterly report as a public entity, released August 4, showed revenue of $7.8 billion for the second quarter — nearly double the $4.1 billion posted a year earlier. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion. The launch business remains the profitability drag: the Space segment, the smallest of the company's three divisions, generated $962 million in revenue against an operating loss of $542 million.

NASA Business and Competitive Pressures

Government contracts continue to flow in. NASA confirmed an $843 million award for the development of the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle, which will guide the International Space Station to a controlled reentry after 2030. At the same time, the agency is spreading its bets: a $100 million payload-processing contract went to competitors including Blue Origin and Firefly Aerospace, a sign that NASA is deliberately reducing its reliance on SpaceX in at least some areas.

Volatility Amplified by Leveraged Products

The stock's trading range tells the story of its volatility: it sits roughly 40 percent below the 52-week high of €194.46 set in June, but about 28 percent above the €91.04 low reached in early August. Leveraged products are adding fuel to the fire. Direxion now offers both long and short certificates on SpaceX, paired with similar instruments on Tesla. The short product launched just as the company reported its first earnings as a public company and the initial lock-up period expired — timing that has done little to calm the swings.

For now, the market is catching its breath. But with a second lock-up wave, a high-stakes Starship flight, and a rare Sell rating all converging in the weeks ahead, the calm may not last long.