SpaceX Stock's 15.7% Surge Caps a Week Where Lock-Up Fears Collided With a Short Squeeze
Published on 08/09/2026 at 12:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The script for a post-IPO lock-up expiry usually writes itself: a flood of newly tradable shares hits the market, and the stock pays the price. SpaceX tore up that script on Friday, closing at €115.14 with a 15.66% daily gain — the second consecutive session of heavy buying that lifted the weekly advance to 22.53%. The move came despite roughly 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale when the first lock-up period expired, a tranche representing about 7% of all outstanding stock and enough to double the free float from 4.9% to 11.8%.
Short Sellers Caught in the Uplift
The rally's engine, according to market observers, was a short squeeze of considerable proportions. More than 250 million shares — approximately 16% of the freely tradable float — are currently sold short. As prices climb, bearish traders are forced to cover their positions, purchasing shares to limit losses and adding further fuel to the upward trajectory. The fact that the stock advanced rather than buckled under the weight of the lock-up release was widely read as evidence of just how forceful that dynamic has become.
The squeeze was ignited by the company's first quarterly report since its Nasdaq debut in June. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $7.8 billion, a 92% jump year over year and comfortably ahead of the Wall Street consensus estimate of roughly $6.7–6.9 billion. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, down from $1 billion in the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
Starlink's Profit Engine and the AI Pivot
Investor enthusiasm centered on the connectivity division. Starlink posted an operating profit of $1.7 billion for the quarter, underpinned by 12 million subscribers worldwide. The satellite constellation now counts more than 10,900 active units, giving SpaceX control of roughly 75% of all active, maneuverable satellites in Earth orbit, according to company figures.
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Beyond the satellite internet business, management is leaning hard into artificial intelligence. The planned acquisition of AI coding tool Cursor for $60 billion in stock — announced in June — is nearing regulatory completion, with Elon Musk telling analysts on the earnings call that the deal should close "pretty soon," potentially as early as this coming weekend and no later than the end of August. Cursor will be folded entirely into the existing SpaceXAI unit rather than operating as a standalone business. That division already generated $2.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, supported by $18.4 billion in data center investments. Management is targeting an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by December, assuming Cursor is included, with cloud computing services expected to remain the primary growth driver. Musk also flagged plans to begin launching orbital AI satellites next year, a move designed to push data centers into space and undercut competitors on cost.
Analyst Divergence Widens
Wall Street remains deeply split on valuation. Argus upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" on Friday, setting a price target of $160.00 and citing a projected 2026 revenue trajectory approaching the $100 billion mark. Morningstar struck a far more cautious tone, reaffirming a "narrow" economic moat but assigning a fair value of just $62.00 — a signal that, in its view, the market is pricing in overly optimistic growth scenarios.
Ahead of the lock-up expiry, other firms had weighed in on the mechanics of the share release. Mizuho noted that the right to sell does not mean the entire tranche will actually hit the market, while JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth acknowledged the potential 143% expansion of the float but pointed to substantial market positioning already undertaken in advance of the unlock.
A Busy Operational Calendar
The launch schedule shows no signs of slowing. On Saturday, a Falcon 9 carried 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base — the company's 92nd flight of the year. Another Starlink mission is slated for August 11 from California's SLC-4E pad, followed by the Globalstar-2-R mission from Florida on August 15. A Falcon 9 also served as the vehicle for three BlueBird satellites belonging to AST SpaceMobile earlier in the week.
Later this month, all eyes will turn to the 14th test flight of the Starship system. Musk confirmed during the earnings call that late August should see the first attempt at an orbital payload deployment and a "catch" of the upper stage at the launch tower. The company also received confirmation from NASA on Friday that it is working under a fixed-price contract worth $843 million on the "U.S. Deorbit Vehicle," a modified Cargo Dragon capsule with delivery targeted for the end of 2028.
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Not every headline was favorable. A decommissioned Falcon 9 upper stage from a 2025 mission re-entered the atmosphere uncontrolled on Wednesday, striking the lunar surface at roughly 5,400 miles per hour. The incident has yet to materially affect the share price.
The Road Ahead
The stock still sits well below its 52-week high of €194.46, though it has climbed clear of the €91.04 low. The annualized 30-day volatility of 89.75% underscores just how turbulent trading has become. A weak month — the stock had fallen more than 11% — has given way to a sharp reversal, even as further lock-up expirations loom: roughly 319 million shares could be released on August 20, with additional tranches of around 700 million each following in September and October. Musk's own stake of more than six billion shares remains locked until June 2027.
Early investors are already testing the waters. Jessie Bates III, a safety for the Atlanta Falcons, told CNBC he plans to sell his entire position, purchased for $150,000 in 2022. For now, such individual sales appear to be the exception rather than the rule.
