SpaceX Stock Hits New Lows Despite $1.6 Billion Pentagon Deal and FAA Deregulation Push

SpaceX shares hit near 52-week low at €98.20, down 50% from peak, as $1.6B Space Force deal fails to offset lock-up expiry and earnings risks.

The torrent of negative news surrounding SpaceX shows no signs of abating, with the stock sliding another 3.95 percent on Wednesday to €98.20 — barely above its 52-week low of €94.15, set just last week. The decline comes even as the company locks in fresh government contracts and regulators move to slash launch approval times, underscoring how deeply the market's mood has soured since the June IPO.

Pentagon Cash Keeps Flowing

The US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches, with all missions slated for completion by the end of 2027. A portion of the work feeds into the "Golden Dome" missile defense program. The deal adds to what has already been a banner year for SpaceX's military arm: the company has now secured at least $7 billion in Pentagon contracts in 2026 alone. That tally includes a $2.29 billion award in May for the Space Data Network backbone and a separate $4.16 billion contract for hypersonic weapons tracking.

Government work provides a reliable revenue floor, particularly valuable as SpaceX pours capital into its Starship and Starlink programs. But the market is clearly looking past these wins. The stock has lost more than half its value since hitting a record high of €194.46 on June 16, with the monthly decline now sitting at 34.30 percent. Annualized 30-day volatility of 65.21 percent tells the story of a stock that can't catch a bid, no matter how good the headlines.

A Technical Picture of Exhaustion

The 14-day Relative Strength Index has dropped to 33.3, pushing the stock into oversold territory. Short sellers now control roughly 32 percent of the freely traded float — an extraordinarily high figure for a company of SpaceX's size. The options market is pricing in exceptional swings ahead of the next major catalysts, with the first quarterly earnings report since the IPO due August 4.

Analysts expect SpaceX to post roughly $6.9 billion in revenue and a loss of about $0.28 per share for the quarter. Starlink remains the core growth engine: the satellite internet business generated an estimated 61 percent of total company revenue in 2025, with subscriber numbers hitting 10.3 million — up roughly 50 percent year-over-year.

The Lock-Up Looming Over Everything

Just two days after earnings, on August 6, the lock-up period expires for insiders and early investors. That will free up 911.5 million shares for trading — a massive overhang representing a substantial chunk of the company's equity. Elon Musk's personal stake is exempt and remains locked until June 2027.

CNBC's Jim Cramer advised viewers not to build large positions ahead of this double whammy of earnings and lock-up expiry, even as he maintained a long-term bullish view on the company. The warning echoes a broader unease: the stock has already erased more than a trillion dollars in market capitalization from its peak, making this one of the most dramatic valuation collapses in recent IPO history.

Analyst Views: From $62 to $800

The divergence in analyst price targets is staggering. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas maintains an overweight rating with a $300 target, arguing that the August 4 report could deliver a positive surprise. He points to SpaceX's AI ventures around Grok and Cursor, plus deals with Anthropic and Alphabet that could collectively generate up to $26 billion annually. If the stock falls below $100, Jonas argues, the market is effectively pricing those AI activities at zero.

At the opposite end, Morningstar rates the stock a sell with a fair value of just $63 — a fraction of the current price. The average analyst target still sits well above $200, but the spread between the most bullish and bearish calls is unusually wide. ARK Invest has been buying into the weakness, while warnings grow louder that the stock could slip below the psychologically important $100 mark.

FAA Moves to Speed Up Launches

Amid the financial turmoil, the Federal Aviation Administration proposed a rule change that would exempt commercial rocket launches from requirements under 13 federal laws, including the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act. The goal is to slash permitting timelines that can currently stretch to 36 months. SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025 and has set a target of up to 10,000 launches per year within five years.

The company was fined $150,000 in 2024 for Clean Water Act violations, and environmental groups including the Center for Biological Diversity have already pledged to challenge the FAA's proposal in court, calling it an improper giveaway to the industry. The regulatory push comes as SpaceX prepares for a packed launch schedule: two Falcon 9 missions are set for July 30, one classified NROL-95 flight for the National Reconnaissance Office from Florida and a Starlink batch from California.

Starship Progress and What Comes Next

SpaceX is also analyzing data from Starship's 13th test flight on July 24. The Super Heavy booster made a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico, but the upper stage achieved its first soft ocean touchdown and was reportedly still drifting in the Indian Ocean the following day. Management has hinted that the next test could include an attempt to catch the upper stage with the launch tower's mechanical arms.

For now, none of these developments — not the Pentagon contracts, not the regulatory tailwinds, not the technical progress — are enough to reverse the selling pressure. The stock is oversold, the volatility is extreme, and the next two weeks will determine whether this is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper slide.